Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Home prices keep sliding

Good morning. It's Andreea in Sydney. Let's get going. But first...Today's must-reads:• Home prices keep sliding• Opposing views on Australi

Good morning. It's Andreea in Sydney. Let's get going. But first...

Today's must-reads:
• Home prices keep sliding
Opposing views on Australian rates
• Socceroos beat Denmark to advance

What else is happening around our region this morning

Housing pain. Australia's housing downturn extended into November, but continued to decelerate, suggesting the property market is beginning to adjust to higher borrowing costs and even the prospect of more interest-rate hikes ahead. Prices fell 1% in November, the smallest decline since June.  It's worse across the Tasman: Prices in New Zealand suffered their biggest annual decline in more than 13 years in November, down 2.9% from a year earlier, as the central bank stepped up its inflation fight with a record rate increase.

At odds. Meanwhile, views are diverging over Australia's rate outlook.  Commonwealth Bank reckons policy makers are near the peak of their tightening cycle, while Goldman Sachs sees rate hikes persisting into 2023. CBA has one more hike next week to 3.1% while Goldman predicts five more to 4.1% in May. It highlights the contrasting assessments of the capacity of the A$9.7 trillion housing market to weather the sharpest tightening cycle since 1994.

Aussie Aussie Aussie. The Socceroos beat Denmark 1-0 Wednesday to advance to the round of 16 at the World Cup for only the second time after 
Mathew Leckie scored. The last Socceroos team to earn that honor got Australia into the knockout stage in 2006.

Under review. HSBC is reviewing its New Zealand retail banking operations as the lender looks for ways to streamline its footprint while heading off calls for a full-blown breakup. New Zealand generated a pretax operating profit of NZ$50.9 million last year. HSBC became the first overseas lender to gain a New Zealand banking license in 1987 following the deregulation of the country's financial industry. 

Censured. Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison became the first leader to be censured by parliament over his decision to secretly be sworn into five ministries in 2020 and 2021, a move he attributed to the uncertainties of the pandemic.

What happened overnight

Downshift. Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate increases next month, while stressing borrowing costs will need to keep rising and remain restrictive for some time to beat inflation. His comments likely cement expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the Dec. 13-14 meeting, following four straight 75 basis-point moves.

Positive start. Stocks are set to open in the green after Powell's comments sparked a widespread rally on Wall Street. The dollar and bond yields tumbled. The Aussie is at 68 US cents and oil jumped. Adding to the risk-on mood, China says efforts to combat the virus are entering a new phase with the Omicron variant weakening and more Chinese getting vaccinated. That's a fresh sign that Beijing may be seeking to amend its strategy. Bloomberg Economics forecasts a full reopening by mid-2023.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

RIP Jiang Zemin. The Chinese leader who presided over more than a a decade of dramatic economic growth following the bloody 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square, has died. He was 96. Jiang encouraged businessmen to join the Communist Party and, alongside Premier Zhu Rongji, dismantled the "iron rice bowl" welfare system, and guided China toward World Trade Organization membership, leading to a surge in foreign investment.

What to watch

• S&P Global Australia PMI for November
• Australia private capital expenditure for 3Q
• November commodity index
• New Zealand four-month financial statements

One more thing...

Rumin8, an Australian startup, says giving livestock its lab-made feed additive is an alternative to harvesting vast quantities of greenhouse gas-busting seaweed. The relatively recent discovery is supposed to stop cows from burping climate-warming methane, the second-largest cause of global warming. Livestock contribute an estimated 32% of emissions generated from human behavior.

Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

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