Tuesday, November 29, 2022

A £346 million selloff

With Ruth David.

Hi, I'm Ruth David, Bloomberg's London bureau chief. Here's today's Readout.

Months after the storm that was former Prime Minister Liz Truss's "mini-budget," the cleanup continues. The Bank of England today sold £346 million of the government bonds bought to halt the resulting market chaos.

While the sale went off without any fireworks, Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the gilt market is still fragile after a period of "severe illiquidity." "It's not back to normal at the moment," Bailey said Tuesday at the Economic Affairs Committee in the House of Lords.

Asked why the BOE didn't go ahead with a big one-off sale of assets built up over more than a decade of quantitative easing, Bailey was clear: "Doing that would be a very frankly inadvisable thing to do." 

Separately, BOE policy maker Catherine Mann warned today that inflation expectations are becoming "increasingly embedded" and are heading toward 4% — twice the Bank's target level. At this rate, the English breakfast may soon become an indulgent memory for many.

"I have been on the side of voting somewhat more aggressively, in terms of guiding the economy with a more front loaded change in bank rate," Mann said in a web event.

Her comments could foreshadow another increase in the BOE's key interest rate, which stands at 3% but was almost zero a year ago. Still, Mann brushed aside the question of  whether she would support a "super-sized" rate hike in December, saying she wanted to see the economic data before making a decision.  

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

Shrinking Britannia

Everywhere you look there seem to be signs that Britain and its businesses are shrinking — whether that's banking, real estate or energy suppliers.

Take HSBC. The London-based, Asia-focused bank has endure management and shareholder woes in recent months, in some way mirroring the UK's increasingly fractious relationship with China.

The bank said today it was selling its Canadian business to Royal Bank of Canada for C$13.5 billion ($10 billion). Bloomberg has been reporting in recent months how HSBC is eyeing acquisitions in Singapore and India and expanding its private banking in mainland China. No word on going bigger in Britain.

US rival Goldman Sachs, which we reported today is among investment banks in the US and Europe trying to get $42 billion of buyout debt off their balance sheets before Christmas, is reducing its London footprint as well.

Goldman Sachs's London HQ. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

The New York-based lender is shifting staff to Milan to bolster its European offices post-Brexit, Bloomberg's William Shaw and Tommaso Ebhardt report. The slow bleed of banking talent to the continent since the 2016 vote to leave the European Union shows no sign of stopping.

Global firms operating in the UK are also contending with increasing regulation. Mastercard today lost a bid to narrow the size of the UK's largest ever class action lawsuit over its payment fees; appeal judges rejected moves to exclude about 3 million people who died since the claim was first filed. And the government is planning to bring a controversial and long-in-the-making Online Safety Bill to Parliament next week. That could significantly tighten rules around how tech giants including Twitter and Meta operate.

There's bucketloads more woe on London's property market. For starters, prices of high-end properties are forecast to drop 3% next year, even as Dubai grows a resounding 13.5%. We're already seeing signs of the slowdown in the wider UK housing market — mortgage approvals in October fell to the lowest since the early stages of the pandemic, according to the latest Bank of England data.

The one exception to shrinking Britannia seems to be its non-white population. In England and Wales, new census data showed that the proportion of people who identify as Asian rose from 7.5% to 9.3% of the population of 59.6 million between 2011 and 2021; the Black population increased from 3.3% to 4%, the Office for National Statistics said. And London can still certainly claim one crown: It remains the country's most multi-cultural region. 

Energy CEOs have stopped talking about climate

The top bosses of US oil and gas companies are speaking less and less about climate and carbon emissions, a signal that the industry's public focus on ESG over the past couple of years may be fading.

A Bloomberg analysis of quarterly conference calls held by 172 American oil and gas companies shows how terms such as "climate change," "energy transition" and "net zero" have come up with gradually less frequency in the most recent rounds of conversations with analysts and investors.

Read the full story from Gerson Freitas Jr and Raeedah Wahid.

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

Taking back control. Inside the radical cleanup at Juventus, where a hard-nosed family figure is calling the shots.

Zombie virus. Thawing permafrost may pose a threat to human health.

The $1.8 billion spy. Wall Street is spending more than ever on technology designed to keep an eye on traders

How bad is badEveryone talks about recession, but (whisper it) so far UK data doesn't look that awful, John Stepek writes.
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Goodbye, Ferrari. The Italian super-car maker's Formula 1 team principal Mattia Binotto will leave his post at the end of the year.

No place like home. Three different cities on three separate continents are the best places for expats to live and work.

The big number

€705 billion
The cost of cushioning European consumers from energy price spikes soared last month as winter arrived.

The next Singapore or Dubai?

One key story, every weekday

Cattle graze by a new development in GIFT City.  Photographer: Zishaan Akbar Latif for Bloomberg Markets

To lure investors turned off by bureaucracy, India has created a city where none of the usual rules apply. Taxes are suspended; so are limits on currency trading. There's plenty of air con, and — in an otherwise dry state — alcohol flows freely. Will it be enough to compete with Singapore and Dubai? 

Read The Big Take.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Ruth on Twitter.

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