Monday, October 31, 2022

Elon Musk grabs Twitter wheel, aims for cliff

Plus: Diversity will soon be outlawed.

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a tax write-off of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

It's Musk's Twitter Now

Alexis Leondis has a piece today encouraging Americans to book their capital losses by year-end, to take advantage of the tax breaks you get when you take a bath on your investments. Personal note to Elon Musk: This advice may not apply to trashing a multibillion-dollar company you bought on a lark. To be safe, run the idea by @catturd2.

Musk, after paying $44 billion for Twitter — a struggling social media platform probably worth [spins random number wheel] $12 billion — seems determined to drive its value to $0 billion as fast as possible. In just a few days, he has:

  • Fired most top managers and the entire board;
  • Tweeted and deleted a conspiracy theory about Paul Pelosi; 
  • Threatened to charge users $20 a month for account verification;
  • Threatened to fire engineers who can't make the $20-a-month thing happen in a week; and
  • Outsourced content-moderation strategy to @catturd2

… to name just a few. It's not an encouraging start, writes Parmy Olson. Twitter users and employees have reasons to worry about its fate. So do Twitter's bankers, given how fast it is bleeding money. Parmy argues the $20-a-month verification idea is the best one Musk has had so far, but even that would raise very little cash:

And this figure assumes every blue check will pay to keep this badge, when it could soon be more of a badge of honor to not label yourself a sucker who donates $240 a year to Elon Musk for the privilege of being harassed by Nazis. The site has long handed out verifications for free to avoid being sued over imposters and to reassure users information sources are reliable. Turning that relationship on its head will make the hellsite even more hellish. Reviving Vine, on the other hand … 

Musk is also trying to avoid paying fired Twitter execs their golden parachutes, Matt Levine notes. Just like when he tried to avoid buying Twitter in the first place, he … really can't do this. The legal system kept Musk from trashing contract law by backing out of his bad Twitter deal. Golden parachutes are somewhat less sympathetic targets of Musk's destructive energy, but the system will probably protect them, too. 

Somewhere on Musk's Twitter to-do list is giving Donald Trump his account back, an event that may usher in the Fourth Turning. Joshua Green suggests, though, that returning Trump tweets to the nightly news will actually help keep him from retaking the White House, by reminding Americans how much they couldn't stand him. As with tax losses, life is all about silver linings.

So Much For Diversity

Once upon a time, conservatives were all about the government standing back and letting investors and corporations do whatever they wanted, for capitalism. But then investors started rewarding corporations for saving the environment and undoing centuries of systemic racism and sexism. Now conservatives are building their own nanny state in response.

The Supreme Court this week is hearing a couple of college affirmative-action cases that will almost certainly end the practice. Noah Feldman points out these cases will also lead directly to corporate diversity efforts being outlawed as well.

Conservatives — including those on the high court who gutted the Voting Rights Act — would argue racism is over and that diversity efforts are reverse racism motivated purely by wokeness. But study after study after study has shown groups with diverse backgrounds make better decisions and produce better market returns. Apparently it's no longer conservative to let the market decide.

Election 2022: Countdown to Another Crisis

It's almost Election Day in the US, and the state of our union is murderous. Frank Wilkinson traveled to rural Pennsylvania and found a hotbed of right-wing conspiracy theorists. They regularly threaten local officials who don't indulge their fantasies that Trump was robbed two years ago. And now many of them are becoming local officials and will handle the machinery of the next election. Fortunately, Frank has found a solution. Haha, no. There is no solution.

There may, however, be a path to at least understanding where these people are coming from. Matt Yglesias was recently in Ohio talking to conspiracy theorists and found many voted for Democrats in the past. Shifting party platforms changed their allegiances, but the common theme of their voting histories is that they have always been ill-informed.

When TV pundits say Dems will lose Congress this year because of the economy, stupid, Stephen Mihm can point to research finding the economy has nothing to do with midterm outcomes. Our fieldwork suggests it may just be the conspiracy theories, stupid.  

Further Election Reading:

Telltale Charts

If we must sacrifice rainforests to human "progress," it's better to mine in them than farm in them, argues David Fickling. Mining makes less of an ecological impact, believe it or not.  

China is quickly becoming Europe's favorite EV supplier, write Chris Bryant and Anjani Trivedi. The proper reaction to this is not protectionism, however.  

Further Reading

More oversight would shore up bipartisan support for more Ukraine aid. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

Jay Powell has it worse than Volcker or Burns, in that he also has to avoid a financial crisis. — Mohamed El-Erian 

Credit Suisse's stock sale is bad for shareholders, but all the alternatives are worse. — Paul Davies 

Lula will take over a bitterly divided Brazil in a much more challenging economic climate. — Clara Ferreira Marques  

The shaky US-Saudi relationship faces three big tests soon. — Hussein Ibish 

Wages are so awful in Japan they make US fast-food jobs look appealing. — Gearoid Reidy 

Wastewater testing data is the only reliable Covid measure now. — Faye Flam

ICYMI

President Joe Biden will push for a windfall tax on oil profits. (Liam Denning has thoughts.)

The Pelosi attacker wanted to hold the speaker of the House hostage, the DOJ said.

Small businesses are struggling to pay rent.

Kickers

An expedition finds cameras ditched by Yukon climbers in 1937.

The Titanic sonar blip mystery has been solved. (h/t Ellen Kominers for the first two kickers)

Why mathematicians study knots.

The 100 best horror movies of all time.

Notes:  Please send solar blips and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

Sign up here and follow us on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and Facebook.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Welcome to Power Trends!

Hello, Thank you for subscribing! You will receive your first copy of Power Trends soon. We look forward ...