With the majority of British adults consistently telling pollsters they care about climate change, we start the week with two bits of good news. First is Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's election victory in Brazil, which gives the Amazon rainforest a fighting chance, and secondly, the indication the UK's new prime minister will head to COP27 next week after all. The result in Brazil is a much-needed boost to the pledge signed at COP26 to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030. Stopping deforestation in its tracks is the single biggest thing you can do if you want to be on a path to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees by 2030. And the Amazon is the largest carbon sink we have. I helped organize COP26 and Bolsonaro was, to put it diplomatically, a limiting factor. He presided over the highest deforestation rates in 15 years — it surged 72% during his time in office. He also gutted environment enforcement agencies, giving free rein to illegal land grabs by developers. In the year since the last summit in Glasgow, the world has been understandably distracted. Lula's return to power — he pledged "zero deforestation" in his victory speech — should breathe life back into not just the Amazon, but also the international push to "halt and reverse" deforestation. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addresses supporters Sunday night. Photographer: Tuane Fernandes/Bloomberg Which brings us onto COP27, starting on Sunday in Egypt's Sharm el Sheikh. The Readout will be there for the first week, but more importantly, having said the prime minister wasn't going, Downing Street is now indicating that he will go if enough progress is made on the Autumn Statement. Hopefully, the new prime minister comes to realize that climate diplomacy is much more than world leader FOMO or summit presenteeism. It's an agenda of economic opportunity that brings the UK highly skilled tech jobs and financial gain from first mover advantage. (Full disclosure: I now run a firm, Zeroism, that advises countries and companies how to shift to low carbon tech). It is also about the place Britain has in the world, and it's one we shouldn't vacate. The push for Just Energy Transition Partnerships launched by Boris Johnson was the thing he was most excited by in the fight against climate change. I know because I spent much of the two-day COP26 world leaders' summit with Johnson. It was held in a prefab hangar turned into a kind of IKEA sixth form common room/game of world leader top trumps, where then-Australian leader Scott Morrison and team sat soft next to the Ghanaians. There Johnson extolled the virtues of JETPs in all of his bilats. Conceived as a rival to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, JETPs use government seed money to crowd in private finance for new infrastructure that lower carbon emissions — South Africa is the first case (which I wrote about here), and Vietnam, Indonesia, Senegal and India all want to follow suit, looking to rich nations to help them transition to a low carbon world without hobbling their nations' development. For me, knowing him well, JETPs — a finance-led approach to climate change — is as Sunakian a foreign policy as it is possible to imagine. And right now, it badly needs a high level champion. So if Prime Minister Sunak is looking for an agenda that plays to Britain's strengths, then going to Sharm with an offer on JETPs would be a good way to do it. We need to move beyond vague statements about "being committed" and on to real world delivery. |
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