Monday, October 31, 2022

Canopy wants to go to America. Will Nasdaq let it?

Welcome to my weekly newsletter on the cannabis and psychedelics industries. Lawyers and cannabis companies have come up with some innovativ

Welcome to my weekly newsletter on the cannabis and psychedelics industries. Lawyers and cannabis companies have come up with some  innovative business structures, and last week's deal to create Canopy USA may be one for the history books — whether it succeeds or fails.  

Will the exchange give the all-clear?

Canopy Growth's innovative deal structured to get it access to the US marijuana market even without federal legalization hit a potential roadblock last week, one that showed how big a role stock exchanges play in the fate of cannabis companies.

Soon after Canopy announced a plan to buy three US assets ahead of the federal legalization that everyone thought the transactions were hinged on, it filed a proxy statement. The filing disclosed that "Nasdaq has objected to Canopy consolidating the financial results of Canopy USA in the event that Canopy USA closes on the acquisition." That leaves Canopy, its investor Constellation Brands and the three companies — Acreage HoldingsJetty Extracts and Wana Brands — hanging.

US stock exchanges have so far shied away from listing US cannabis companies because they traffic in a federally illegal substance. It may turn out that even the creation of a US holding company owned by a Canadian firm via exchangeable shares makes the Nasdaq too nervous. A Nasdaq spokesman declined to comment.

"WEED can either proceed with the transaction and delist from Nasdaq or WEED can abandon the transaction," BMO Capital Markets analyst Tamy Chen said in an Oct. 26 research note, using Canopy's Canadian stock symbol. She said she wouldn't be changing her estimates on the company and would continue to view it as a stand-alone entity given uncertainties over whether the plan would go ahead.

It was a different story on Oct. 25, the day Bloomberg broke news about the deal. Marijuana stocks were buoyed on both sides of the border — with Canopy rising the most in four years — and many analysts speculated that the Canopy plan could set a precedent for other Canadian companies shut out of the larger US market.

"We applaud Canopy's structuring creativity and believe this structuring opens the door to other strategic investments in US cannabis companies," MKM Partners analyst Bill Kirk wrote in a research note. But by the end of the week, Canopy and its peers were trading down again.

There's no shortage of Canadian companies that are struggling and might like a shot at reaching US consumers. The Canadian marijuana industry has cited an oversupply of weed and not enough stores in Canada to sell it through, as well as shifting consumer preferences, for lackluster financial performance over the past year. Many pitch their knowledge of plant genetics and their stockpiles of intellectual property as strengths that could help them compete internationally.

In the end, Canopy's fate, and the hopes of other investors who want to invest in US cannabis, may rest on what the Nasdaq decides.

"This is not necessarily the final decision of Nasdaq, just an initial objection — with Canopy arguing Nasdaq's interpretation of its policies is wrong," Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett wrote.

Number of the week

5
The number of US states that will vote on marijuana legalization as part of ballot measures on Nov. 8 (Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota)

Quote of the week

"I think the president made an important first step in some departments, but it's a first step, and it's a lot more to take place before the industry dynamics change in the US to be able to capitalize on that. So, we still believe it has long-term potential in the US, but certainly, in the political environment, nothing is imminent," Altria Chief Executive Officer Billy Gifford, answering a question about how he thinks about the cannabis category given the company's investment in Cronos Group. 

What you need to know

  • Canopy plans to create a new entity, Canopy USA LLC, to purchase companies — Acreage, Jetty and Wana — in which it has options to take control in the event of US legalization. The deal, subject to a shareholder vote, will make Canopy profitable and allow it to create a US "house of brands," it said. The news drove cannabis stocks higher on Oct. 25.
  • Germany will permit adults to buy up to 30 grams of cannabis for recreational use, as Europe's biggest economy aims to curb the black market for the drug. 
  • Does marijuana help with pain? A new study shows that use actually increases the amount of pain people experience after surgery, and their consumption of opioids to cope with it. 

Events

Wednesday 11/2

  • Scotts Miracle-Gro reports fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens.
  • Innovative Industrial Properties reports third-quarter earnings after the market closes.

Thursday 11/3

Friday 11/4

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