| Traders place Fed bets, an eventful November awaits and grain markets get jolted. While investors have for months been eagerly awaiting a Federal Reserve policy pivot, signaling such a move as soon as this week would send investors scrambling. Almost half of 250 respondents polled last week in the MLIV Pulse survey said they were buying the dollar ahead of the Nov. 1-2 Fed meeting, and about 78% expected two-year Treasury yields to go up. These bets could go sour if Chair Jerome Powell suggests a step down toward a 50 basis-point rate increase in December, or quarter-point moves to finish off the Fed's hiking cycle in early 2023. Beyond the Fed policy decision, three other events in the coming month could shape the market's outlook for the rest of the year: the October jobs report on Nov. 4, US mid-term elections on Nov. 8 and consumer-price index data on Nov. 10. Economists expect this week's payrolls report to indicate continued strength in the labor market, and they'll be watching the CPI figures for signs of a further pullback from a four-decade high seen earlier this year. As for the elections, stock bulls are hoping for a divided Congress, which has historically benefited equities given political gridlocks tend to produce few major policy shifts.  | A deal to keep grain flowing out of Ukraine, the largest supplier of wheat, was in peril momentarily after Russia announced over the weekend that it was suspending its involvement. Ships loaded with grain are now beginning to leave Ukraine, as the United Nations and Turkey work to salvage the agreement. Russia suspended its participation on Saturday after drone strikes against its naval fleet, claiming without evidence that one of the drones might have come from a grain ship that's part of the Black Sea initiative. Ukraine strongly denied the accusations. Wheat in Chicago jumped as much as 7.7% at the open on Monday before paring gains in London. US equity futures pulled back, with S&P 500 contracts down 0.5% at 6:16 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended gains into a third session, weighing on almost all Group-of-10 currencies. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year rate rising to 4.06%. Oil and gold slid while Bitcoin was little changed. At 9:45 a.m., we'll get the October reading for the MNI Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, followed by Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity data 45 minutes later. Earnings include Goodyear, Leggett & Platt, Sonoco and NXP Semiconductors. Here's what caught our eye over the weekend: For the last two years, there's been a lot of talk about supply chain disruptions. But you could make an argument that this focus is misplaced. After all, if the issue is too much demand, then the issue is not really supply chains per se, but rather that supply chains just weren't built to handle such high volumes of activity. Anyway, we can leave that discussion for another time. But that being said, one category of supply chain stress that's unambiguous is stress caused by climate change or extreme weather events. On the latest episode of the podcast, we talk about the drought in the Midwest, and the impact that's having on shipping goods down the Mississippi River, which is at its lowest water depth since the 1980s. This is curtailing barge traffic on the river, and this has caused rates to surge. Here's a 10-year chart of barge spot rates on the Mississippi going back 10 years. It looks like a whole lot of charts these days. Basically flat for a decade, and then some unbelievable jump to a level that's multiple times the old price. But there's no macro or Covid or geopolitics story here. It's about the lack of rain. Of course, droughts are part of nature, and farmers expect them from time to time. But the question here is whether it's a blip that will be over the next time there's a flash flood (possible) or whether this will be a long-persisting phenomenon that forces some kind of broader, logistical change. Check out the episode on Apple, Spotify or elsewhere. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter @TheStalwart | 
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