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Brazil has a new leader. Goldman predicts US interest rates will go even higher. Cathay makes a return to Russian airspace. Here's what you need to know today.

Leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has beaten incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election, in a dramatic comeback for the left-wing politician who was languishing in a jail cell just three years ago. All eyes now will be on how Bolsonaro responds and how quickly the US government decides to recognize the result and congratulate Lula. Bolsonaro has questioned the electronic voting system and raised the specter of potential fraud allegations. Follow the all the latest developments here.

Goldman Sachs economists now expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even higher than previously predicted. The central bank will lift its benchmark rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% in March, 25 basis points more than earlier expected, they say. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank faces a tough task in deciding whether to persist with smaller interest-rate increases or returning to outsized hikes to try to gain control of hotter-than-expected inflation. Financial markets and most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Reserve Bank will deliver a second straight quarter percentage-point rise at Tuesday's meeting, taking the cash rate to 2.85%, the highest level since April 2013.

Cathay Pacific will return to using Russian airspace several months after Moscow's war in Ukraine upended the aviation industry and global flight paths. Hong Kong's main carrier will fly from New York to the Asian financial hub using the so-called Polar Route from Nov. 1. Passing over eastern Russian will slash flight times and save money on fuel costs, but the airline will have to pay Russian fees for the right to fly over Siberia. Cathay described the route as "safe." Earlier this month Virgin Atlantic shuttered its Hong Kong operation, citing "significant operational complexities due to the ongoing Russian airspace closure."

Traders are bracing for a fresh spike in grain prices after Russia's exit from a deal allowing Ukraine crops to move from the Black Sea to the countries most in need of them. The sudden move by Russia after an attack on its Black Sea naval fleet left leaders scrambling to rescue the UN-and-Turkey-brokered agreement credited with saving vulnerable populations from risk of starvation. The latest trade setback threatens to worsen already severe inflation and deepen a global food crisis.

Equity futures gave mixed signals at the start of a pivotal week for markets that will see interest rate decisions from central banks including the Fed. US contracts opened lower Monday, while futures for benchmark share gauges in Japan and Hong Kong advanced. The dollar made small advances against most major currencies, suggesting caution among traders. Investors in Asia will also be watching for China's official PMIs this session, which are projected to show a recovery struggling to gain traction. Between now and Nov. 10 keep an eye out for four major events that could shape the market's outlook for the rest of the year.

Musk posts then deletes conspiracy theory tweet on Pelosi.
Apple gears up to launch new Macs early next year.
Xi kicks off third term with a flurry of diplomatic activity.
Web searches soar for plausible " reasons to skip work."
Thailand's top transgender CEO just snapped up Miss Universe.

Equities roared higher to close out last week, but that makes them look vulnerable with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England each expected to deliver 75-basis-point hikes. Friday's US surge may have owed much to the proximity to the end of the month, so a bit of an unwind could hit as soon as Tuesday.

But we're also gearing up for another round of pivot peril. You should know the drill by now — as the Fed jacks up rates at an accelerated pace, investors start anticipating that this massive interest-rate hike will be the last before policymakers ease back on their aggression. The question is whether the Fed wants to allow such a narrative to bloom, and the inevitable loosening in financial conditions it would bring. Right now things are pretty tight, but the danger for equity investors is that Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues decide to underscore their hawkish outlook.

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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