Sunday, October 2, 2022

5 things to start your day

Sydney house prices fall for eighth straight month. JD.com founder Richard Liu settles with rape accuser. Credit Suisse CEO asks for 100 day

Sydney house prices fall for eighth straight month. JD.com founder Richard Liu settles with rape accuser. Credit Suisse CEO asks for 100 days to turn around bank. Here's what you need to know today.

One-Stop Shop

India is creating a digital platform that combines 16 ministries, in a $1.2 trillion bid to snatch factories away from China. The mega project, called PM Gati Shakti, will offer investors and companies a one-stop solution for design of projects, seamless approvals and easier estimation of costs. It hopes that fast-tracking projects will give the country an advantage, especially with China still largely closed to the outside world. Meanwhile, the relentless plunge in China's stocks has burnished the appeal of rival India, spurring a divergence that's rarely been seen before. The MSCI India Index rallied almost 10% last quarter, compared with a 23% slump for the MSCI China Index.

Rebels Yell

in a bid to head off a potential rebellion, the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, is privately trying to reassure Conservative Members of Parliament that his sweeping — and controversial — tax cuts can fix the UK economy. He has talked to about 25 MPs in recent days. The backlash over his decision to scrap the top rate of income tax for the UK's highest earners is threatening to undermine Liz Truss's government after less than a month in office. On Sunday, the prime minister took the unusual step of pinning the policy on Kwarteng, while saying she is sticking with it despite the seismic political fallout. This is what global bankers had to say about  Kwarteng's "fiasco" of a mini budget.

Eleventh Hour

Billionaire JD.com founder Richard Liu reached a settlement with Liu Jingyao, the Minnesota student who accused him of rape in 2018, bringing to a close a civil suit less than 48 hours before a trial was set to begin. Details of the settlement weren't released. Liu Jingyao had been seeking at least $50,000 in damages, plus additional punitive damages in the lawsuit. Richard Liu, whose Chinese name is Liu Qiangdong, is one of China's most powerful businessmen. News of the alleged assault wiped $10 billion off the value of the company, but Liu remains among the 150 richest people in the world, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Cautious Start

Asian stocks are set for a tepid start to October after their worst monthly performance in almost 14 years. Equity futures suggest a mixed open in Australia and Japan while contracts in South Korea fell. US stocks just posted their third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2009, while UK markets added to the stress after the government's tax cuts. On Tuesday, Australia is expected to implement one more outsized interest-rate increase. House prices in Sydney fell for an eighth straight month in September. Meanwhile, oil surged in early Asian trading after delegates said OPEC+ was considering cutting output by more than 1 million barrels a day

Turnaround Time

Credit Suisse's new chief has asked investors for less than 100 days to deliver a new turnaround strategy. But turbulent markets are making that feel like a long time. The cost of insuring the firm's bonds against default climbed about 15% last week to levels not seen since 2009, as shares touched a new record low. CEO Ulrich Koerner reassured staff that the bank has a "strong capital base and liquidity position." Since taking up the post in July, he has had to deal with market speculation, banker exits and capital doubts. The lender is currently finalizing plans that will likely see sweeping changes to its investment bank and may include thousands of job cuts over a number of years.

What we've been reading

And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in this morning

Treasury 10-year yields are surging relentlessly higher in a way rarely seen. They just climbed for a ninth-straight week, the longest such streak since early 1994, jumping 1.18 percentage points in that time. That bond sell-off is only the most savage move since the April-May rout that sent yields up 1.4 points in a nine-week span, but its persistence is noticeable. 

The message is that the bond market has finally realized just how determined the Federal Reserve is about raising and raising and raising interest rates to contain and then cool inflation. Long streaks of weekly yield gains have tended to come around or just after the mid-point of tightening cycles, as well as at pivotal moments when the target rate is sitting at the bottom after rate cuts. That underscores the potential both that we get some sort of a rebound in bonds, and perhaps in other assets, though relief is likely to be short, and ultimately bittersweet.

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

    No comments:

    Post a Comment

    ClankApp - BTC - 232,386,910 $ just move.

    ClankApp Transaction alert for BTC New large transaction for BITCOIN blockchain concerning BT...