Thursday, September 1, 2022

Triple threat

With Allegra Stratton

Boris Johnson had one more rabbit in his hat. At lunchtime the outgoing prime minister announced a £700m investment in the nuclear plant Sizewell C. It won't bring energy prices down now but is a step towards tripling the UK's homegrown, low carbon, energy production by 2050.

The UK and its EU allies will never again go back to "mainlining [Putin's] hydrocarbons", he said. The speech was also a jumbo line drawn in the Suffolk sand for whoever comes next.

Last September, Johnson was preparing to go to the United Nations and rally the world behind low carbon commitments. In a late night address, he quibbled with Kermit the Frog: "It IS easy being green," he told world leaders (some got the reference, some were baffled). 

A year on, so much has changed. Johnson is leaving office, and frontrunner Liz Truss is reported to be planning to appoint pro-fracking, windfarm-skeptic Jacob Rees-Mogg to run the business and energy department. Johnson is clearly pointing which part of his legacy they should not tamper with. 

As a political force of nature prepares to exit, he is more than happy to tell us all that he is a force for nature, too.

Sizewell C.

What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

If no new taxes, then what?

Today brings a triple helping of financial trouble: the continued collapse in the value of sterling, the fall of domestic stocks and borrowing costs for British firms going past 5% for the first time in a decade.

Amid the maelstrom, the final Tory leadership hustings last night could have seen Liz Truss slink quietly towards the finish line. Instead she made two more wham-bam, bold-as-brass commitments. Asked if she would make a "read my lips" promise not to raise taxes she said, very clearly: "Yes. No new taxes."

Liz Truss. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Most divisive, however, was her decisive opposition to the idea of rationing energy this autumn. Commentators asked whether ad hoc blackouts were truly better than rationing, which despite its uncomfortable label describes a slightly more orderly hierarchy of energy needs. Perhaps it jars with a leadership candidate adamant that she offers hope, not austerity.

The background music is not pleasant. As Joe Easton and Matthew Musindi report, UK domestic stocks fell for a ninth day — putting them on course for their worst run of losses since the outbreak of Covid19. The FTSE 100 index is laden with exporters (and is outperforming as a result), but the real woes are to be found in the FTSE 250, the midcap index that includes many well-known UK firms. It is "being weighed down by an escalating cost of living crisis, a tumbling pound and lingering political uncertainty," Joe and Matthew write.

Elsewhere, the outlook is no easier on the bond markets. Borrowing costs for blue-chip British companies have risen past 5% — a key threshold — for the first time in more than a decade. Runaway inflation is "hammering" the country's corporate sector, our reporters note.

And with sterling posting its worst monthly performance since the 2016 Brexit vote, forecasts show it is now morphing into a danger to UK economy, raising the cost of imports and further fueling inflation. Bloomberg's market strategist Simon White says the prospect of the pound hitting parity versus the dollar is becoming ever less outlandish. 

Dealing with all this will be down to Kwasi Kwarteng, an avid Bloomberg Terminal user who looks nailed on to be Truss's chancellor if she wins. In a profile today, Adrian Wooldridge isn't sure whether even the effervescently clever Kwarteng can meet the scale of the challenge.

"Placed in the right context, Kwarteng's obvious qualities — his powerful intellect and his big personality — could become a valuable asset. Set in the wrong one — blinkered leadership and dim-witted colleagues — the very same traits could drive the country over the edge with remarkable speed."

Soon the wait will be over. As of next Tuesday, rather than hearing what a candidate won't do, we'll learn more of what they will.

Biggest standards squeeze in a century

Britons face a 10% fall in real disposable incomes over two years as soaring energy bills drive inflation well into double digits. That would be the biggest shock on living standards in a century unless the next prime minister delivers tens of billions of pounds of additional support, according to estimates by the Resolution Foundation.

Such a squeeze would leave a typical household £3,000 ($3,490) worse off and plunge 3 million more people into poverty. Truss has advocated more than £30 billion of tax cuts but has refused to detail what extra help is planned.

Read the full story from Andrew Atkinson.

What we're reading tonight

Get ahead of the curve

The City gets radicalLondon's financial establishment is warming to Liz Truss's bold plans.

Second chanceTwitter launches an edit button for paying subscribers, following years of requests from users.

'Friendly' currency. Weighed down by sanctions, Russia may buy as much as $70 billion in Chinese yuan.

Troll vs. Blackrock. An anti-ESG crusader wants businesses to mind only their business.

Burberry is soul-searching. Will the British luxury brand replace its lead designer?

Chasing Tesla. New VW boss Olivier Blume has to deal with his predecessor's failed software efforts.

Speedier refunds, please. How regulators are trying to get airlines to repay customers for canceled flights.

What they said

"As long as Covid continues to be manageable, we need everyone back in our offices on a consistent basis."
Jefferies Group
The broker is calling its employees back to office, following similar announcements by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Inside Russia's conspiracy theory factory

One key story, every weekday

As the confrontation between Russia and the West intensifies — with Ukraine now fighting launching an offensive in the south — understanding RT and its influence has never mattered more.

The European Union banned the cable news network shortly after the Ukraine invasion began in late February, in response to what it said was a Russian campaign of "disinformation, information manipulation and distortion of facts." The UK soon followed suit, while US TV carriers canceled its distribution deals.

But RT remains alive and well, serving Russia's effort to muddy the picture of what's really going on in Ukraine.

Read The Big Take

What happens next

Your early warning system for the day ahead

Tory leadership Ballot closes.

7 a.m. Ashmore earnings.

9.30 a.m. How consumer spending on car fuel responded to the surge in prices (via ONS).

Follow all tomorrow's corporate news in The London Rush, live on Bloomberg UK from 8 a.m

 

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter. The Readout is edited by Adam Blenford.

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