Crypto News: Maybe markets keep selling off for good reason

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The market pain may just be starting.
Truss has not yet earned trust.
We are putting the energy crisis to good use.
Too much of the world imports food and fuel.

Back in July, this newsletter pointed out that everybody hated stocks, which could be a buying opportunity. Like a bag of shredded cheese, that call had a shelf life of about a month. Today people really hate stocks even more than they did in July, as Jonathan Levin and this cheerful chart point out:

This is the kind of sustained disgust usually reserved for things like Vladimir Putin, podcasters and the New York Yankees. So does this mean it's time to open a new bag of cheddar? Maybe not. Jonathan lays out all the reasons sentiment may be perfectly legitimate at the moment:

Previously exorbitant disgust levels this year have not exactly led to sustained buying;
The Fed and other central bankers are still trying to murder the global economy; and
Even after months of fasting, stock valuations are still kinda bloated.

Mohamed El-Erian adds to this list by pointing out the market's tectonic plates are still being shaken by the near-death experience of globalization, among other things. Adding to the uncertainty was last week's epic own-goal by the government of new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss. Mohamed suggests this raised fresh doubts about the competence of our leaders to guide us through these ructions safely.

To be sure, there may be a tiny pony in this mountain of market manure. For example, the US dollar trouncing its rivals does at least help the Fed fight inflation, as Robert Burgess points out — even if it also exports recession to the rest of the world, as David Fickling notes.

And John Authers reminds us to never forget how often moments of absolute certainty — stocks are dead forever, inflation is dead forever, New York City is dead forever — are turning points that kill such certainty dead forever. Or at least until the next time.

As mentioned above, the UK's Truss triggered the latest bout of market unpleasantness by trying to clear a ball from in front of her own goal and booting it straight into her own face, off which it ricocheted into the back of the net, Chris Brass style.

Markets usually approve of words like "tax cuts" and "supply-side economics," but the sheer fiscal recklessness of Truss's un-tax-and-spend plan in the middle of an inflation crisis confirmed her reputation for carelessness, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. With the pound crashing toward dollar parity and investors treating the UK like Argentina on a shopping spree, as Dan Moss notes, the Bank of England will soon be forced to push in the other direction by raising rates even more.

It doesn't help that Truss's plan for economic rejuvenation includes backstopping energy traders facing margin calls, something Javier Blas points out could also include big banks and hedge funds — hardly the stuff of "leveling up."

Tyler Cowen argues we shouldn't just dismiss Truss's plan, and Therese Raphael suggests it could be improved by overhauling funding for the NHS. Still, all this chaos is rapidly warming up the large ice block in which the Labour Party has been encased since 2010, Martin Ivens writes, though it remains to be seen if Keir Starmer has what it takes to actually lead his party to a full thaw.

People always say to never let a crisis go to waste, but one of the things about a crisis is that it tends to impair your ability to think strategically. Right now we have an energy crisis piled on top of our Ukraine war crisis, inflation crisis and needing-more-Cobra-Kai-content crisis (one of those might just be mine). It feels like it's all we can do to keep the lights on, much less turn these problems to our advantage.

But David Fickling points out the world has been doing exactly that with this energy crisis, just as it did during energy crises of the past. We're burning less gasoline, using more renewables, and otherwise looking for energy sources that don't randomly invade other countries and use their product as a weapon. Maybe this crisis isn't being wasted after all.

But let's not pat ourselves on the back too much. Liam Denning points out a lot of the world depends on imports of both food and fuel, and the Ukraine war's disruptions are still a crisis for all of them.

It's good the SEC is dropping its campaign against payment for order flow. — Bloomberg's editorial board

New York has fewer people but still not enough apartments. — Justin Fox

Three things we learned from Larry Page's flying-car failure. — Parmy Olson

Giorgia Meloni may have sway in the EU but will struggle to hold power at home. — Rachel Sanderson

If you want to keep Venezuelan immigrants out, then help the South American countries where they could go instead. — Matt Yglesias

With Elizabeth gone and economic hardship gripping the UK, its royals face a reckoning. — Pankaj Mishra

Our track record of getting kids vaccinated for HPV is at risk. — Lisa Jarvis

Manhattan's commercial real estate market is in trouble.

Remote work helped inflate the housing bubble.

Vegan meat sales are falling.

Hurricane Ian is aiming for Tampa.

Amazon giveth raises, Amazon taketh them away.

The polar vortex is already acting up.

How Americans spend their money, by generation.

The Zodiac killings may have been solved (again).

Notes: Please send raises and feedback to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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