Monday, September 26, 2022

Kuwait’s sweeping pre-election changes

Also: UAE's oil ambition, Turkey's shock

Kuwait is once again at a crossroads, but will this time really be any different?

The country's leadership, which assumed power two years ago, is fulfilling promises for change, including a broad shakeup of major government entities. The latest involved the removal of top officials from the Public Institution for Social Security.

The move shocked those who recognized the officials as reformers who turned around a $137 billion pension fund mired in loss and controversy. But it was widely hailed too -- a welcome sign of another move away from an era now widely associated with corruption.

Kuwait's Crown Prince Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. Photo: Xinhua News Agency

Elections for parliament on Thursday could mark the turning of a new page. Crown Prince Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, who is running the day-to-day affairs of the country, is seeing through the pledged change in government management, whether good, bad or ugly.

Not only has he brought in new people to run the executive branch, but he has scrapped a number of hurdles ahead of elections, making the Sept. 29 polls the most democratic ever. Voters faced a stern warning in June, when the former parliament was dissolved, to choose the right people or face more serious measures.

Also Read:  Kuwait Appoints First Female Deputy Central Bank Governor

What's to come for Kuwait is anyone's guess. History says it will stay the same, or even get worse for a country whose fiscal reforms and economic development has been held hostage to years of political bickering between elected lawmakers and cabinet ministers appointed by the ruling family.

The current honeymoon phase, embraced by even the most staunch opponents of the government, will be tested next month when a new cabinet is formed, and when elections for the speaker of parliament and committees are held — something the crown prince vowed the government won't interfere in. 

Also Read: Kuwait's KIA to Move Oversight of $7 Billion Fund Out of London

It remains to be seen if Sheikh Mishaal will have bought enough equity and capital to bring about enough of a thaw in relations between the government and opposition, in order to execute much needed fiscal and economic reforms, and attract foreign investors. This will all become apparent when Kuwait hits its next political crisis.

Chart of the Week

The United Arab Emirates is accelerating a plan to raise its oil production capacity, as OPEC producer tries to cash in on its crude reserves before the world transitions to cleaner energy.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., which pumps almost all the UAE's oil, wants to be able to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2025. That's sooner than a previously disclosed target of 2030.

Meanwhile, Adnoc is considering buying all or part of commodity trading house Gunvor Group, in what would be one of the industry's biggest deals in years.

Also Read: Aramco Says Global Oil Buffers May Vanish When Demand Recovers

The Slant

Iran's protesters know the grave risks they take when they challenge the regime, but Mahsa Amini's example has inspired them to rise up rather than be cowed down. US President Joe Biden should reward their bravery by amplifying their voices, Bobby Ghosh writes for Bloomberg Opinion. 

Iranians wave the national flag as they march during a pro-hijab rally in Tehran on Sept. 23. Photo: AFP via Getty Images

Also Read: EU Demands Iran End Its Violent Crackdown on Protesters

Need to Know 

Another shock cut: Turkey's central bank slashed interest rates by 100 basis points for the second consecutive month, despite raging inflation and a plunging lira. Meanwhile, the inflation-fighting decision to keep wholesale milk prices unchanged could backfire

Egypt's options: The IMF deal may take a month or two, and the government is considering affordable loans from China and Japan, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said. The North African nation is also aiming to raise as much as $6 billion before the middle of next year by selling stakes in state-owned businesses, Planning Minister Hala Elsaid said.

Also Read:  Egypt Holds Rate While Taking Different Tack on Liquidity, Pound

IPO hotspot: Rothschild is moving its head of equity advisory for Asia to Dubai as it tries to capture a bigger slice of the growing market for initial public offerings. Meanwhile, road-toll operator Salik drew $50 billion in orders for its IPO, underscoring the high demand for Middle Eastern deals.

Sentiment sours: Saudi stocks became the first in the Gulf region to enter a bear market this year as a plunge in oil prices soured sentiment after nearly two years of outperformance.

$1.3 trillion mineral wealth: Saudi Arabia says it has the potential to unlock enough copper to ease a looming shortage as the world shifts to clean energy, but the kingdom faces challenges that established mining countries already have solved.

PIF's plan: The US subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's $620 billion sovereign wealth fund plans to hire a team of about 50 for its New York office as it expands its investments.

Also Read: Saudi Wealth Fund Head Likens Dalio Market Views to Movie Critic

Mubadala's Nordic bet: The Abu Dhabi wealth fund is considering buying a stake in private equity firm EQT's fiber network operator GlobalConnect, in a deal that could value the business at more than $7 billion

Also Read: Abu Dhabi's ADQ Backs $200 Million Fund for Tech Startups

Mediation efforts: Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh last month as part of talks that led to Russia and Ukraine swapping prisoners of war.

Change in tone: Yair Lapid called for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, the first Israeli leader to do so at the United Nations General Assembly in six years.

Gas crunch: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz secured just one shipment of liquefied natural gas from the UAE, with a non-binding agreement for more. An ensuing trip to Qatar didn't immediately yield any more deals. 

Coming Up

  • Morocco rate decision: Sept. 27
  • Saudi Arabia central bank reserves: Sept. 28
  • Saudi Arabia jobs data: Sept. 29
  • Salik to list shares: Sept. 29
  • Turkey September CPI: Oct. 3
  • Israel rate decision: Oct. 3

Final Word 

There's a lot left to do with just two months to go for the football World Cup in Qatar. 

New residences, hotel rooms, stadiums — and even a sewage system — are being built to accommodate an estimated 1.2 million soccer fans who will descend on Doha for one of the world's biggest sporting events.

Workers outside the metro station serving the Al Thumama football stadium in Doha. Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg

Small armies of migrant workers are racing to finish construction ahead of a Nov. 1 deadline to stop work, already pushed back by delays because of the pandemic, supply-chain roadblocks and the unprecedented scale of hosting such an event.  

The deadline is meant to allow the dust to settle — literally and figuratively — in a desert country that's been transformed by buildings since winning the rights to host the World Cup in 2010.

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