Monday, August 1, 2022

Groundhog Day for RBA

Good morning and happy RBA day, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to kick off your morning. Today's must-reads: RBA seen hiking b

Good morning and happy RBA day, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to kick off your morning. 

Today's must-reads:

What's happening around our region this morning

Aggressive move. The RBA will lift its key interest rate by 50 basis points for a third consecutive month today to 1.85%, according to 28 of 30 economists surveyed.  That will take its combined tightening since May to 175 basis-points, the biggest increase inside six months since 1994. It raises the risk of an economic slowdown as the housing market shifts into reverse and consumers pull back on spending.

Model 3 inflation. One of the year's unlikely best investments in Australia is turning out to be a new Tesla. Months-old Tesla Model 3s with only a few hundred miles on the clock are selling for around A$130,000 or higher, more than one-third above the price of a new one. That's because the delivery time for a brand-new model is so long Down Under — up to nine months — that buyers are losing patience. 

Beer inflation. Aussie drinkers woke up to more than a hangover yesterday as accelerating prices and a quirk in the tax system sent the price of beer surging. In its semi-annual CPI indexation review, the Australian Tax Office lifted the excise on a frothy by 4%. It was the largest increase in over 30 years, according to the Brewers Association of Australia, and it could see the drink reach A$15 a pint.

Cancel culture. Passengers flying with Virgin Australia and Dutch carrier KLM are suffering some of the biggest disruptions to travel as the understaffed aviation industry struggles to cope with a resurgence in demand, schedules show. Virgin Australia canceled the biggest proportion of flights in the three months through July 26, according to Cirium data. It axed close to 2,200 flights, or 5.9% of its schedule, compared with 1.4% in the same period in 2019.

What happened overnight

Nancy Pelosi is expected to go to Taiwan today despite warnings from Beijing, people familiar said. The offshore yuan, Taiwan dollar NDFs and US-listed Chinese stocks all fell on the news. The House speaker would be the highest-ranking US politician to visit while in office in 25 years and may meet President Tsai Ing-wen. 

US stocks declined for the first day in four and bonds rallied as investors digested weekend Fed comments and weakening manufacturing data. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% while the Nasdaq fell 0.2% after dropping as much as 1%. S&P/ASX 200 Index futures fell.

A US counterterrorism operation was carried out against "a significant al-Qaeda target" in Afghanistan, a senior Biden administration official said. The official said the operation took place over the weekend and didn't elaborate. The AP said the strike killed top Al-Qaida Leader Ayman Al-Zawahri.

Moscow will probably reject a prisoner swap proposed by Washington unless it gets two Russians in return for the two Americans, including WNBA player Brittney Griner. The US had offered to free arms dealer Viktor Bout in exchange. The Kremlin didn't make a good-faith, serious counter-offer, the White House said.

What to watch

  • 11:30 a.m.: June Australian building approvals
  • 2:30 p.m.: RBA cash rate decision

One more thing…

Feral camels in Queensland  Photo: Auscape/Universal Images Group Editorial via Getty Images

Weird and hilarious climate solutions are everywhere. From carbon credits for hunting feral camels from helicopters in the Outback to cloud-spilling ships that would spray seawater into the atmosphere to cool the earth, few ideas are worth ignoring at this point of the crisis. Some might even work.

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