Sunday, July 3, 2022

The iPhone takes a back seat

Apple iPhone and Watch take a back seat.

When it comes to Apple's chip advancements, the company's iPhone and watch are taking a back seat to the Mac. Also: Samsung acquires an OLED display company, and we look at the next Apple Watch and AirPods Pro. 

Last week in Power On: Apple readies the iPhone 14, an updated HomePod and new Macs as part of a flood of devices.

The Starters

Apple's M1 chip lineup. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

Apple Inc.'s in-house Mac chips have certainly shaken up the processor industry for personal computers, driving sales of its own desktops and laptops and pushing competitors to search for new solutions. 

In a year and a half, Apple has launched five main types of Mac chips, ranging from the M1 to the M1 Ultra to the M2. And over the next year or so, I expect Apple to introduce several more, including the M2 Pro, M2 Max, M2 Ultra and M3.

In order to get there, Apple's silicon engineering group had to shift many of its testing, development and production resources to Mac chips. The question is whether that affected its other products. Combined with supply bottlenecks, the focus may have contributed to slower progress for the iPhone, Apple Watch and even cellular modems. 

This year, for the first time since Apple starting designing its own processors, the company won't be upgrading the chip inside of its main new iPhone. This fall's entry-level iPhone 14 models will retain the A15 chip from last year, with only the Pro version getting a new A16 processor. 

And the Apple Watch is expected to retain the same general processing performance for the third year in a row—something that's never happened before either. I reported recently that the S8 chip inside of the Apple Watch Series 8 will match the 2021 S7 chip in performance, which was roughly in line with the S6 chip from 2020. 

The annual performance increases for Apple's iPhone processors also have slowed in recent years.

The Apple A15 Bionic chip. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

While the A15 chip in the iPhone 13 was undoubtedly more advanced—including an improved graphics processor, a new CPU design with a focus on efficiency and upgraded video encoders—Apple didn't even bother to compare the processor's speeds with the A14. The company focused instead on the A15 being 50% faster than rival chips. That's a shift from the past, when Apple liked to tout that its new iPhone chips were 20% to 50% faster than the prior generation.

The company also has apparently struggled with its initiative to develop a cellular modem, a move that would replace a component from Qualcomm Inc. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently said that Apple's modem project has "failed" for the time being. I've heard that the company has been struggling with its modem prototypes overheating over the past year or so.

There has been a difference of opinion over when Apple actually planned to launch its own modem. Some analysts said it was 2023, but I've always believed that 2024 was the earliest date for an Apple modem since the company only started working on the project around 2019. It's a big overtaking given the complexity of building a chip that needs to connect to 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G towers globally without fail, while offering as good or better performance as Qualcomm. 

The Apple Mac Studio. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

Apple certainly needed to give the Mac a major boost, considering sales were lagging a few years ago. But neglecting non-Mac chips wouldn't be a wise move. Don't forget that 60% of Apple revenue still comes from devices that don't run M1 or M2 chips (though the technologies used in the Mac chips could eventually land in other devices). 

The broader question is whether Apple's chip department is getting spread too thin, contributing to employee burnout. Some engineers say the group is run with military precision, making it a demanding place to work. Though Apple's chip operation has continued to grow around the world, the team has lost many engineers over the past few years—at a level that's higher than normal attrition. 

Apple has moved to consolidate its chip development, choosing to put Mac chips in the iPad and upcoming mixed-reality headset. It's also using the Apple Watch processor in the HomePod. That means it won't have to create specific chips for the iPad, headset and HomePod.

TSMC manufacturing facility. Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg

But there are things Apple doesn't have total control over—most notably, the global supply of chip production. Apple relies on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to produce its chips, and it needs that company to ship semiconductors with the improved 3-nanometer node process in mass quantities. That reliance has probably held back some of Apple's developments. 

Another factor is cost. The chip shortage has considerably increased the expense of manufacturing and shipping components. Reserving the A16 chip for the pricier and higher-margin iPhone 14 Pro line makes it easier for Apple to swallow the price increase without pushing it on to the consumer. Likewise, keeping the same general processor in the Apple Watch helps keep its cost down as well.

The Bench

Apple's AirPods Pro. Source: Apple

This years's AirPods Pro are unlikely to get heart-rate monitoring. As I've been reporting for a while now, Apple is gearing up to launch new AirPods Pro later this year. It's about time: If you purchased the original AirPods Pro when they launched at the end of 2019, your batteries may be nearing end of life—or at least their reliability is slipping.

Over the past few months, there have been rumors about this year's model gaining the ability to determine a wearer's heart rate or body temperature. I'm told that neither feature is likely to arrive in the 2022 upgrade, though both enhancements have been explored inside the company and could arrive one day. 

The Apple Watch. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

Apple Watch Series 8 will be able to tell you if you have a fever. You can expect some new health-tracking features in this year's Apple Watch. In April, I reported that Apple has been aiming to add body-temperature detection to its Series 8 model, assuming the capability passes muster during internal testing. I now believe the feature is a go for both the standard Apple Watch Series 8 and a new rugged edition that's aimed at extreme sports athletes. It's unlikely to be available in the new version of the lower-end SE, which is also coming this year.

The body-temperature feature won't give you a specific reading—like with a forehead or wrist thermometer—but it should be able to tell if it believes you have a fever. It could then recommend talking to your doctor or using a dedicated thermometer.

Other than the body-temperature reader, other hardware changes will probably be minor. As I mentioned earlier, the new models are likely to offer the same processing power as the Series 6. There's also been internal chatter of updated displays in the new high-end models. I'm hoping they're brighter.

Samsung OLED displays Photographer: Daniel Acker

Samsung nabs a German OLED company. Samsung Electronics Co.'s display business is bringing in some reinforcements to help develop foldable devices and OLED screens. The company recently acquired Germany-based Cynora, which specialized in making more reliable foldable display technology and underlying components for OLED screens (short for organic light-emitting diode). Samsung pioneered foldable smartphones, but it's also a display supplier to Apple, so this is potentially relevant to that company as well. As part of the deal, Samsung acquired Cynora's patents and other intellectual property, but not its employees.

The Schedule

Apple Park headquarters in Cupertino, California. Photographer: Sam Hall/Bloomberg

July 28: Apple announces third-quarter earnings. The company warned back in April that the latest quarter would be a bumpy ride—with supply constraints hurting revenue by as much as $8 billion. Now we'll get a chance to see how it turned out. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri typically handle the conference call, where they provide additional color on the quarter and what to expect from the current period. They'll have a lot to talk about this time around, including inflation's impact on Apple's sales, the ongoing chip shortage and manufacturing delays. 

Post Game Q&A

Q: Do you anticipate an Apple Silicon iMac with a display that's larger than 24 inches?
Q: Will Google's upcoming Pixel Watch be compatible with the iPhone?
Q: What's the latest on Apple's return-to-office plan?

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