Monday, July 4, 2022

Self-demand destruction

With Allegra Stratton

Welcome to The Readout, the new daily newsletter from Bloomberg UK.

A three-word slogan won Boris Johnson the 2019 general election. Today Labour leader Keir Starmer made a rare foray into a fraught area for his party, unveiling a short strapline of his own: "Make Brexit Work".

To oust the Conservatives, Starmer needs votes in Brexit-backing heartlands, hence today's tough no-turning-back message. Our reporter Emily Ashton called his speech a "change of tack" for a politician who previously called for a second Brexit referendum, and was blamed for alienating traditional Labour voters.

Starmer may be now focused on the future, but he might have to take a detour to get there. With the pound at historic lows and inflation at four-decade highs, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Niall Ferguson reckons a stuttering Brexit has already served to take Britain to another time — back to the past.

What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

What will people think? 

Speaking to government officials these days, I am struck by how many point me not to a think tank policy or a ministerial briefing, but to what the public is doing.

As the cost of living increases the discussion is whether people are already using less fuel: driving more slowly, taking the bus, cycling. Will "demand destruction" be the theme of next winter? 

You can see it across today's news agenda; The agony of rising fuel prices saw protesters brought the M4 to a standstill; the Resolution Foundation warned that poor families were "brutally exposed" to rising prices; meanwhile, business are preparing for further increases.

Traffic along the A12 in Essex. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

There's a limit to what government can do. They may find more billions to make further cuts in fuel duty. But a recent 5p cut was little-noticed by the public and quickly swallowed up by further price rises. (Sunday's joint op-ed by Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak was an attempt to make people aware of another upcoming tax policy.)

On Thursday, the competition watchdog will respond to a query from Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng on whether retailers passed on the duty cut. The watchdog could help but it will be marginal.

Meanwhile, over in Germany, there are fears that entire industries could collapse in the face of Russia's energy squeeze, and the country has just recorded its first monthly trade deficit in 30 years. There are calls for autobahn drivers to slow down. Hamburg is talking about rationing hot water. "Salvation, if it exists, will come from all of society conserving energy," Bloomberg Opinion columnist Andreas Kluth writes.

Today, Javier Blas also predicts a major "demand response" push as European politicians try to manage company consumption, similar to National Grid plans we reported on last week. As Rachel Morison revealed, this winter there will be a financial incentive for Britons to avoid using peak time energy. Experience tells me that it's hard to feed and bathe small children before (say) 6pm;  with energy costs sky-high, though, many people will have a go.

Actively calling on UK voters to change their behavior is very dangerous territory. With energy prices so high, ministers don't think they need to. That doesn't mean they aren't praying for it. 

Prime location, prime prices

Rents in London's prime property areas rose the most in more than two decades in the year through June, according to data compiled by broker Savills Plc as office workers and international students moving to the city competed to secure a home. Soaring rental growth is set to slow in the second half of the year, with the cost-of-living crisis curbing the amount tenants are able to pay. 

What we're reading tonight

Get ahead of the curve

China's largest hack. Unknown hackers claimed to have stolen data on as many as a billion Chinese residents from a Shanghai police database.

The next (US) recession might well be long, moderate and painful.

EVs in danger. Manufacturers are worried that an EU proposal to classify metal as a reproductive toxin could hurt the growing EV industry.

Top Gun isn't enough. The world is enduring a famine of original thinking, Adrian Wooldridge writes for Bloomberg Opinion.

A nation of queuers. The Wimbledon queue is a British institution. But does getting through the gates need to be this hard?

'Grow or die.' An exclusive private London wine club is expanding internationally — and setting up a digital TV outlet.

What they said

I don't feel that what I'm doing will lead to any radical changes, but I do think that each of us can bring in a small contribution."
Jordi Regàs
The 51-year-old diver contributes to marine research in Barcelona in his free time, one of a growing community of people joining climate science research around the world.

What happens next

Your early warning system for the day ahead

7 a.m earnings Sainsbury's, Cairn Homes

9 a.m. New car registration data

9:30 a.m. S&P Global/CIPS UK PMI data: services, composite

10:30 a.m. Bank of England Financial Stability Report

All-day Marks and Spencer annual general meeting

Follow all tomorrow's corporate news in The London Rush, live on Bloomberg UK from 8 a.m.

 

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter. The Readout is edited by Adam Blenford.

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