Monday, July 4, 2022

RBA Set for Second Big Rate Hike

Good morning all, it's Garfield here coming to you from drenched-through Sydney. Here's what's happening in our region todayToday's must-rea

Good morning all, it's Garfield here coming to you from drenched-through Sydney. Here's what's happening in our region today

Today's must-reads:

  • Aggressive interest-rate hikes to test Aussie consumers
  • Commodities boom as Australia sees second year of record exports
  • A fourth round of flood misery for Sydney spurs evacuations

What's happening around our region this morning

Double jeopardy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is overwhelmingly expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point to match June's move. That would be an unprecedented set of such hikes, as Governor Philip Lowe jacks up borrowing costs to cool demand and with it, eventually, inflation. Some are already forecasting a recession is likely as rate hikes pile pressure on some of the world's most-indebted consumers.

Export cushion. At least the "lucky country" can still rely on booming commodities exports it seems. The global raw materials crunch amid Russia's war on Ukraine is lifting the value of Australia's coal and natural gas. Australia's government expect that to more than offset the drop off in iron ore earnings.

Wet, wet, wet. Australia's east coast is hoping that the current deluges afflicting the region is indeed about to ease as weather forecasters have flagged. New South Wales, the nation's most-populous state is in the midst of its fourth bout of flooding in 18 months, with pockets on the outskirts of Sydney so inundated as to force evacuations.

What happened overnight

Tariff relief? President Joe Biden is reportedly pondering a move as soon as this week to announce rollbacks of some US tariffs on Chinese consumer goods. The shift could help fight inflation. It also could come along with a new probe into industrial subsidies that could lead to more duties in strategic areas like technology.

Stagflation angst. US equity-index futures and European bonds fell as investors worried about the twin threats of dwindling economic growth and stubborn inflation. World stocks and bonds are in the grip of the worst selloff in at least three decades as increasing chances of a US—or even global—recession are spooking investors. 

Retrenchment in Asia. Credit Suisse Group AG is cutting more than two dozen front line roles at the investment bank in Asia as the Swiss lender grapples with losses and a weakening outlook for the global economy, people familiar with the matter said. Businesses including deal-making and trading were hit as part of a global effort to reduce costs, and more cuts may follow.

Covid curbs. Hong Kong suspended flights from three airlines Monday, bringing its bans this year to 100. The city keeps imposing onerous Covid restrictions even as the rest of the world beyond China has removed curbs and allows much freer entry and exit.

What to watch

  • 9 a.m.: S&P June PMIs, final figures
  • 2:30 p.m. RBA announces cash-rate target decision

One more thing…

The Volocopter 2X electric air taxi.

Up and away. George Jetson-style flying taxis may be zipping around Singapore as soon as 2024. Seletar Airport, the city-state's second airfield, is predominantly where the super rich land in their private jets. However, air mobility startups Skyports  Ltd. and Volocopter GmbH may soon convert the aging aerodrome into a vertiport, or an airport where the aerial devices take off and land vertically.

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