Feels like recession

The recession calls are getting louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy the downturn is already here.

View in browser

The recession calls are getting louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy the downturn is already here. Closed-down shops in Bradford, UK, earlier this month Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists put the risk of such a slump in the US in the next year at 30%. A Bloomberg Economics model sees a 38% chance in the same period, with the risks building beyond that time frame. But for many it already feels like it's here. More than one-third of Americans believe the economy is now in a recession, according to a poll last month by CivicScience. The worries among small business owners, consumers and others are illustrated by so-called Misery Indexes, which blend unemployment and inflation rates. The gauge for the US is already 12.2%, similar to levels seen at the start of the pandemic and in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg Economics. Read The Big Take.

From today's story "This is not a recession, but it really feels and tastes like a recession." ⁠— Ludovic Subran Chief economist at Allianz SE

ICYMI As the risk of recession increases, the world's bubbliest housing markets are flashing warning signs. Here's how the world is paying for Russia's war in Ukraine. Investigators are unraveling a network that trafficked antiquities on an unprecedented scale and brought them all the way to the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York.  Read more from The Big Take.

Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's The Big Take newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox. Unsubscribe Bloomberg.com Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022