Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Boris Johnson is being forced to make a Borexit

Plus: Traveling is terrible.

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a 1922 Committee of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

Illustration by Jessica Karl
Illustration by Jessica Karl

Wild Boris Hunt

America recently celebrated its declaration of independence from Britain — though many of us may regret that, now that all power in the dysfunctional US government is vested in six unelected amateur historians and Co-Presidents Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. The UK has its own political nightmares aplenty, but at least the governing party can toss its leader, currently played by Boris Johnson, whenever it feels like it.

It even has a couple of ways to go about it. The first, more confusing way is if something called the "1922 Committee," a thing that I have definitely heard of before today, agrees to change Ye Olde British rules to hold a second no-confidence vote on Johnson just a month after the last one, which he barely survived.

The second way is for Johnson's government to simply resign in protest until he quits in shame. Johnson is not known to possess the gene for shame and keeps insisting he's going nowhere. But after yet another scandal, this one involving Johnson giving an alleged sex pest a key government job, the cabinet is giving it a go anyway, scrambling to escape like cats in a bathtub and seal the prime minister's fate. Other PMs would have been buried under Johnson's avalanche of troubles long ago, notes Martin Ivens, but this one is made of more annoying stuff. Still, his goose seems to be boiled.   

Almost miraculously, despite Johnson's troubles and the disruption of the Brexit he helped trick the country into, the UK economy is in relatively decent shape, writes Marcus Ashworth. This could be a boon to the next Tory to replace Johnson. (In a Twitter Spaces discussion today, Bobby Ghosh, Clive Crook and Adrian Wooldridge vetted the short list of candidates for this honor.)

But given the damage Johnson has done to his party, a half-decent economy may not be enough to prevent a Labour victory at the next election, which could happen in 2025, or maybe earlier, if the prime minister taps the queen with the Ceremonial Mace of Parliament and says "Rumpelstiltskin" three times. You may not consider the British political system superior to America's, but you can't deny it's a lot more fun right now.

Don't Come Fly With Me

One British thing that is not fun is British Airways, which today canceled 10,300 more summer flights, raising its total flight-chopping to 13% of its offerings, because it doesn't have enough people to staff its planes. It's a sadly common story around the US and Europe, writes Andrea Felsted, and it's making summer travel more miserable and expensive. It's been the story of the pandemic: Just when you need something — toilet paper, hand sanitizer, a vacation from staying at home with your toilet paper and hand sanitizer — you can't find it. 

Dour House

Mid-June feels like such a long time ago. Roe v. Wade was still the law of the land. We'd only watched the first half of Season 4 of "Stranger Things." Inflation was still a thing.

In fact, the just-released minutes of the Fed's policy meeting three weeks ago are filled with dire warnings of scary rate hikes and a determination to break the economy if need be to fight inflation. But that was so June 15, the stock market decided today. The hot new thing is worrying about recession, as John Authers notes, as illustrated by the unforgettable tale of the "reverse ferret." Forecasting rate hikes is passé. Now traders are tallying up the rate cuts to come — although Robert Burgess writes the bond market seems mostly just confused about the future.

There's at least one problem with the rate-cut-soon narrative: housing. Even as energy, food and clothing prices fall, shelter prices are stubbornly resilient by nature, writes Jonathan Levin. Housing is a huge contributor to headline inflation numbers, which could stay puffed up for a long time and keep the Fed from easing up on the economy until it's too late. 

Telltale Charts

Meme stocks are being hammered even harder than the broader market, but Jared Dillian notes they still have cult-like Reddit devotees willing to lose even more money.

Masayoshi Son's SoftBank is getting embarrassed again, this time on "buy now, pay later" specialist Klarna Bank, writes Shuli Ren. These BNPL firms are the latest subprime lenders to suffer when times get tough, notes Marc Rubinstein

Further Reading

San Francisco's school board was right to restore merit-based admissions to its top high school. — Bloomberg's editorial board

Voyager Digital customers may not get their money back, but they will get tokens. — Matt Levine

Google could do a lot more to protect women's privacy in the age of illegal abortions. — Parmy Olson 

China burning coal will hurt crop yields, threatening its food supply. — Adam Minter 

The pandemic and war have thrown off the data we use to predict the future. — Allison Schrager 

Boston Mayor Michelle Yu has a lot going for her. — Matthew Winkler

ICYMI

The US and allies are considering capping Russian oil prices (something Julian Lee has called "pure fantasy").

Natural gas is "green" now, in Europe.

Here's where to find relatively cheap rent.

Kickers

Area man who was accidentally paid 300 times his salary has disappeared.

Scientists discover what looks like a road deep in the ocean. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers)

A fake job offer took down Axie Infinity.

Microbots can floss and brush teeth, a study has shown.

Notes: Please send microbots and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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