Thursday, July 7, 2022

Big Dog’s downfall

With Allegra Stratton

Welcome to The Readout, the new daily newsletter from Bloomberg UK.

Boris Johnson won the biggest electoral majority in recent history. By teatime today he had overseen the biggest missed political opportunity of a generation.

After the deadliest pandemic in a century and amid the first war on Nato borders in 75 years, Boris Johnson's leadership ended as it began: in exhausting exceptionalism.

Forced to resign, he claimed the vaccine rollout and leadership in Ukraine among his legacies. But it was telling, too, that the department in charge of his premiership's central idea — "levelling up" — ended up denuded of ministers.

His resignation speech leant too much on imagery from the animal kingdom: a "Darwinian battle" fought by MPs with a "herd mentality". He regarded politics as an animalistic scrap rather than, at least in theory, a civilised pursuit.

For all his flaws, in the beginning Johnson had a good ear for the views of the British people. His perceived authenticity connected him to the public, but in the end questions of lying did for him.

Now starts a leadership contest where successors must show they can connect with the same voting coalition assembled by the man they called "Big Dog", but without leaning on Brexit or raising the specter of Jeremy Corbyn.

Boris Johnson makes his resignation speech. Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

What (else) just happened

Stories you need to know about this evening

The next phase

You could see that Johnson thought he had been wronged. The judgment of the scores of ministers who had resigned was "eccentric," he lamented.

Even at midnight last night he told one loyal minister "everyone has gone completely mad" and that he would contest any second vote of no confidence — and win. Some inside Number 10 described being scared of what kind of stunts might be coming next. This morning, civil servants running departments — unable to carry on the business of government — were furious at being unable to do their jobs. Eventually, the penny dropped.

The debate now turns to whether Johnson should leave immediately, considering that the UK faces an energy, security and cost-of-living crisis.

As Kitty Donaldson reports, one reason why the PM may be keen to stay is that he is due to host his wedding at Chequers. But a great number of those rebels, cock-a-hoop at successfully prising him away from Downing Street's faded grandeur, want him out now. Most joke that they are "ready for [Dominic] Raab," the deputy prime minister deemed to have a done a capable job while Johnson was in hospital with Covid in 2020.

But there is no mechanism for this. Sensible people in Number 10, even those relieved that Johnson has now finally decided to go, think it is reasonable he should stay to look after the transition. These are hardly "refuseniks."

Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Ben Wallace, Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi. Photographers: Chris J. Ratcliffe; Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Attention now turns to who comes next — and what they will do. Bloomberg's Alex Wickham reports today that former Health Secretary Sajid Javid is considering a leadership run, while Sky News said that Transport Secretary Grant Shapps is doing the same. Bookmakers are keen on Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt.(Only Suella Braverman and Steve Baker have so far publicly said they'll run, but that is certain to change.)

The backbench 1922 Committee thinks it has done its job by getting Johnson to resign. Joe Mayes reports that the committee plans to whittle any leadership contenders down to a final two by July 21, and have the contest decided by September.

Committee elections on Monday may change attitudes but with just a week left of the parliamentary calendar before a long holiday, some rebels suspect Johnson will stay in place. They say they will leave watch him closely — and move again if they spy any "antics."

Why markets are ignoring politics

UK financial markets have remained indifferent to the soap opera playing out in UK politics in recent days, Marcus Ashworth writes for Bloomberg Opinion. Bigger forces are at play, including rampant inflation, the cost of living crisis, the super strong dollar and war in Ukraine. While the pound is certainly weaker versus the dollar this year, that's true of all major world currencies. The export-led FTSE 100 index has outperformed most major global indexes this year. Still, the mid-cap FTSE 250 index is more domestically aligned and has fallen 20% this year, more in line with the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600 indexes.

What else we're reading tonight

Get ahead of the curve

Scoop alert. A top executive at SoftBank is stepping aside.

The making of Saudi Inc. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has turned the country's investment fund in an inescapable part of the state.

Buckle upApple is working on a rugged, extreme sports watch with an extended battery life for long workouts.

Strikes averted. British Airways reached an deal with check-in employees to head off industrial action.

Who is Zahawi? Our In the City podcast asks what kind of Chancellor Nadhim  Zahawi might turn out to be.

More Musks. Elon Musk is reported to be the father of twins born to a senior executive at his AI startup Neuralink.

What they said

"We're all in for a nightmare if he's allowed to squat.
Dominic Cummings
Boris Johnson's former chief aide on the prospect of his former boss remaining in Downing Street as a caretaker prime minister.

The Big Take

One key story, every weekday

A nickel smelter in Canada. Photographer: Cole Burston/Bloomberg

By 2:08 p.m. Shanghai time on March 8, Xiang Guangda's giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was threatening not only to bankrupt his company, but to trigger a Lehman Brothers-like shock through the entire metals industry — and possibly topple the London Metal Exchange itself.

Four months on, the nickel price is falling, as Xiang had predicted. Banks have been repaid. Xiang has closed out nearly all his short position. But the LME is dealing with a raft of investigations and lawsuits, and the nickel market is still reeling.

Read The Big Take.

What happens next

Your early warning system for the day ahead

9:30 a.m. Public and social trends data on cost of living.

12 p.m. Weekly UK Covid-19 infection survey, via ONS.

Follow all tomorrow's early news in The London Rush, live on Bloomberg UK from 8 a.m.

 

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter. The Readout is edited by Adam Blenford.

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