Wednesday, July 6, 2022

5 things you need to know

The inflation and growth fears buffeting markets. US-China tensions are simmering. Travel headaches from pandemic staffing cuts. Here's what

The inflation and growth fears buffeting markets. US-China tensions are simmering. Travel headaches from pandemic staffing cuts. Here's what you need to know today.

Inflation Versus Growth

The Federal Reserve's June minutes showed officials solidified their resolve to keep raising interest rates to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched, even if that slows the US economy. The trade-off between getting inflation under control and risking economic activity remains the dominant theme globally and in markets. The minutes spurred yet more swings on US sovereign bonds, sending yields higher. Read more here on the volatility in bond markets. Stocks in Asia look set for a steady start Thursday after modest gains in Wall Street shares but the stagflation-like backdrop is keeping traders on the edge of their seats.

China Tensions

Tensions between China and the US are simmering. China's foreign ministry accused the US of "technological terrorism" in pushing to stop ASML Holding and Nikon from selling key chipmaking technology to the country, calling Washington's lobbying "yet another example of the US practice of coercive diplomacy by abusing state power and wielding technological hegemony.'' Meantime, in a rare joint appearance with his UK counterpart, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray warned China may be taking lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to insulate itself from economic repercussions if it invades Taiwan, according to the Washington Post. An earlier advisory from US intelligence officials said China's government is seeking to exploit years of business and cultural relations with US state and local leaders to further its geopolitical and military objectives. Here's why Taiwan risks igniting a US-China clash.

Consequences of Cuts

The consequences of airlines efforts to protect themselves during the early stages of the pandemic are coming home to roost. Qantas has gone from hero to zero as Australians turn on the national flag carrier and its boss following widespread travel disruptions and airport ordeals. The airline has become a punching bag for passengers exasperated with canceled flights, lost belongings and unscheduled sleepovers on airport floors. It's an ugly reversal of fortune for a company that carefully navigated Covid-19 and emerged in better financial shape than almost any other airline in the world. On the other side of the world, British Airways is facing similar misfortune after scrapping another 10,300 flights through the summer season as it grapples with a staffing crisis. Read more on the airline chaos here. 

Getting Extreme

Apple plans its largest smartwatch display to date, a bigger battery and a rugged metal casing as part of the upcoming Apple Watch geared toward extreme sports athletes, according to people with knowledge of the plans. The rugged version of the Apple Watch will get a screen that measures almost 2 inches diagonally, while a new, standard Apple Watch Series 8 will keep the 1.9-inch diagonal screen size of the current series. First released in 2015, the Apple Watch has become a key piece of Apple's hardware lineup and is part of a division that accounted for 10% of the company's total revenue in the past fiscal year. Here's more on Apple's 2022 and 2023 product plans. 

Crypto Loss

Account holders at now-bankrupt Voyager Digital shouldn't expect to get all their crypto back as the company reorganizes. The crypto broker and lender's Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing renews unresolved legal questions about how digital assets will interact with US insolvency law. One thing is certain: Voyager doesn't intend to simply give users back their Bitcoin, Ether and other assets stored on the platform. It's potentially bad news for clients of other crypto firms seeing pain from the rout in digital assets. Crypto lender Celsius Network, which halted user withdrawals more than two weeks ago amid liquidity issues, last week said it's exploring options such as "strategic transactions as well as a restructuring of our liabilities." 

What we've been reading

And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in today

The dollar keeps climbing and climbing almost no matter what this year. The world's reserve currency is benefiting from a cycle that looks to be virtuous for it, but not so much for risk assets, thanks to the Federal Reserve's efforts to return to something more closely resembling conventional monetary policy. When market sentiment is buoyant enough to drive equities higher, the dollar gets a lift from perkier US yields. But when recession fears proliferate, it gets even more of a boost from fear trades —  perhaps enhanced precisely by the runup in yields we have already had. The regime for the dollar shifted first in the pandemic — over the preceding decade dollar gains meant little for equities. Now, we have the US currency close to its March 2020 peaks, and stocks are slumping to losses rare outside of that same time.

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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