| Japan's Abe shot dead, payrolls and looming euro/dollar parity. Today's jobs number is expected to show employers added 268,000 positions in June which would make it one of smallest gains of the pandemic recovery. Economists are not concerned about the slowdown in the rate of job creation as adding half a million jobs a month was never going to be sustainable, and do not see it as a sign of slack in the economy. The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 3.6% while earnings growth will remain strong. Should today's numbers, published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, show continued strength in the labor market it will likely increase expectations of another 75 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this month. The euro continues its inexorable descent toward parity with the dollar, a level it has not breached in 20 years. The Ukraine war has spotlighted Europe's energy dependence, with Germany especially reliant on Russian gas. Recession risk in Europe is extremely elevated, and this will put further pressure on the common currency. Add in a strong dollar, and it looks like a one-way street for the euro this summer. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe died after he was shot during a campaign event Friday. Abe, 67 and Japan's longest-serving premier, was shot from about 3 meters (10 feet) away with what appeared to be a homemade firearm in the western city of Nara as he was giving a campaign speech for his ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The man who attacked Abe has been arrested, NHK said. The attack shocked a nation where political violence and guns are rare. European stocks drifted lower with Spain's IBEX underperforming, down 0.7% as of 5:30 a.m. New York time. Miners posted the biggest declines in the Stoxx 600 index. The dollar rallied to best levels of the week versus most majors. Britain's pound was the worst performer among Group of 10 peers. Crude futures drifted lower, WTI dropped over 1% back below $102. Short-dated German bonds lead a modest rally with UK bonds and Treasuries holding a narrow range ahead of today's US data. Spot gold dipped to lows for the week near $1,735/oz. Bitcoin snapped lower before stalling near $21,500. Yep, it's nonfarm payrolls day! The number for June is due at 8:30 a.m., alongside the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Canada's June unemployment data will hit at the same time. The final May release of Wholesale Inventories will cross at 10 a.m. Later in the session, we get the US consumer credit release for May. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech at 7:55 a.m., Fed's John Williams at 11 a.m. and ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau at 12:45 p.m. Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours. The Treasury market continues to stand out out for its volatility In the last couple days, benchmark 10-year yields sank to 2.80% on Tuesday, only to briefly break above 3% two days later. Amid the churn, one clear(ish) trend emerged: curve inversion. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are currently 4 basis points below 2-year yields, and ETf flows suggest that investors see room for a deeper inversion. Nearly $2.3 billion flooded into the $23 billion iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker IEF) through last Friday — the biggest weekly inflow since 2014 — followed by another $818 million through Wednesday. On the other end of the curve, more than $202 million exited the $20 billion SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) through last week in the first weekly outflow since early June, followed by another $841 million outflow on Tuesday. The flows illustrate the current market consensus: the Federal Reserve'scampaign to cool inflation is going to tip the US economy into a recession. That's a recipe for inversion. "The job market is still strong and inflation is high, so I think the Fed really cannot afford to stop," Priya Misra of TD Securities said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "Front-end rates rise, the long-end stays more anchored because of growth fears." If you're looking for a bright side, curve inversion in and of itself isn't necessarily bad news from the perspective of corporate issuers looking to go long. "I think people are going to be surprised by how much the curve inverts and that's okay," Brian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management co-head of global fixed income, said on Bloomberg Television. "As far as being an issuer, you can issue out the yield curve. These are still historically low rates and companies are still going to grow faster than the rates they're issuing at." Follow Bloomberg's Katie Greifeld on Twitter at @kgreifeld | 
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