Thursday, July 7, 2022

5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

The Fed remains committed to taming inflation, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is resigning and China plans more stimulus. Fed minutesThe Fe

The Fed remains committed to taming inflation, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is resigning and China plans more stimulus. 

Fed minutes

The Fed released the minutes from their most recent interest-rate setting meeting, and they again underscored their commitment to getting inflation down. Many on the FOMC saw the risk of entrenched inflation, and signaled that a 50 or a 75 basis-point hike at the July FOMC was most likely. The Fed also made clear it's ready to prioritize inflation over growth.  On the latter front, tomorrow sees the release of non-farm payrolls in the US. Jobs data still remain upbeat, with layoffs steady in May, while unemployment claims remain historically very low.

Johnson resigning

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to resign, bringing the curtain down on a tempestuous three years in office marred by a succession of scandals that culminated in the rebellion of his own cabinet and parliamentary group.  He will stay on as caretaker prime minister until October, with a new Conservative leader set to be installed in time for the party's annual conference. Investors said the news may spell some initial relief for UK assets, which have been battered by the country's high inflation, weak economy and political uncertainty. 

China stimulus

Authorities in Beijing are considering another play to shore up the world's second-largest economy by allowing local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of bonds in the second half of this year. Proceeds from the sales, which were originally scheduled to begin after Jan. 1 2023, would most likely be used to fund infrastructure projects. The move comes as China's economy continues to struggle to recover from the pandemic. There was little good news on that front, with Shanghai reporting the most virus cases since May, fueling concerns of a fresh lockdown in the financial hub.

Treasuries decline

Treasuries extended declines with 10-year yields rising to 2.98% as an unwind of haven demand saw the broader bond market under pressure. Short-dated German bonds underperform peers, with 2-year yields rising over 12 basis points. European equities extended gains with Euro Stoxx 50 rising 1.75% as of 5:30 a.m. New York time. Base metals rallied in the risk-on environment with LME copper and nickel rising over 3%. Crude futures and spot gold held a narrow range. Bitcoin traded near $20,500.

Coming up...

Today's economic data includes June Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30 a.m. and the weekly jobless claims and May trade balance at 8:30 a.m. Central bankers are relatively busy: Fed's Christopher Waller and James Bullard are scheduled to speak at 1 p.m. Prior to this we will get the ECB's June policy meeting accounts, comments from ECB's Klaas Knot, Yannis Stournaras, Mario Centeno and Constantinos Herodotou as well as BOE's Catherine Mann and Huw Pill. Levi Strauss & Co. and Aritzia Inc. are among companies scheduled to report earnings; Costco Wholesale Corp will report June sales numbers.

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

I first got interested in markets, personally, around 1998, when the dotcom boom really started roaring. So I was pretty excited about the guest on our latest podcast.

Some readers might remember TheGlobe.com, an early online community site that's mostly known for having had the biggest IPO surge in history, with a nearly 1000% gain on its first day of trading in 1998. In our chat, we talked with Co-CEO Stephan Paternot about what that period was really like. Among other things, he talked about what it was like going from having roughly $100 million net worth at the peak to needing help from his parents to pay the rent. It was an extraordinary conversation about what the backside of a bubble really feels like.

During our chat, he described in a way I hadn't appreciated, why so many companies were lighting money on fire at the time on the way to their demise. Basically as he put it, the online advertising market back then was still pretty small. The pie just wasn't that big yet, and obviously couldn't really support the huge dotcom market caps at the time. So everyone spent like crazy to run in place. With everyone fighting for a limited chunk of ad revenue, companies were making numerous acquisitions and other unsustainable moves in an attempt to bolster growth. In the end, the economics just couldn't support all the different players and the money all disappeared.

Speaking the other side of the boom, let me turn to crypto for a second. One thing that's been striking these last few weeks is the number of different lenders and counterparties that seem to have a high degree of 3AC exposure. They've also doubled down on a few specific trades, like UST/Luna implosion, or levered stETH.

Something I've been thinking about is how in the advanced stages of a bubble, as existing business models get unsustainable, entities may feel they must take outsize risks in order to stay in the game. In other words, if, say, crypto inflows are starting to trickle overall, shrinking the pie for everyone, then the only way to actually keep growing revenue is through bigger risks to secure high yields, in order to win a greater share of the pie.

And so basically in the final chapters of the boom, the whole thing is accelerated, because everyone is engaging in ever more unsustainable actions to keep the hamster wheel spinning. We've seen it over the last few months in crypto, and it was an element of the dotcom bubble that caused so many companies to flame out.

Check out the full episode on Apple, Spotify, or elsewhere.

Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter @TheStalwart

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