| The dollar is soaring, the US and China are talking and a crypto survey. The dollar advanced yet again against most of its peers, with gains exceeding 1% against the euro and the Nordic currencies, as investors pondered the fallout of a slowdown in the global economy. The euro slumped to the lowest since 2002 on concern that the European Central Bank may not able to raise rates as much as expected, leaving the currency exposed on interest-rate differentials. Senior officials from China and the US discussed economic sanctions and tariffs amid reports President Joe Biden is looking to roll back some of the trade levies imposed by the former administration. While reducing tariffs on imported Chinese goods would have some effect on consumer prices in the US, analysts suggest the savings would be modest with Barclay's Plc seeing a one-time inflation reduction of 0.3 of a percentage point. The broader global economy seems more concerned about the possibility of a recession than the loosening of some trade measures. Industrial metals have absorbed the brunt of the bearish sentiment, with copper tumbling to a fresh 17-month low this morning.  | Don't let optimism among equity analysts fool you: Earnings forecasts are likely to be slashed as spiraling inflation and rising interest rates put the brakes on spending. That's the view from the latest MLIV Pulse survey, with 65% of 629 respondents saying analysts are "behind the curve" factoring in the damage. This week, we turn our attention to cryptocurrencies. Which will win, Bitcoin or Ethereum? Stablecoins or central bank digital currencies? And what are NFTs really? Have your say here. Stocks fell sharply with several European indexes dropping more than 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 was down 0.6% as of 5:30 a.m. New York time. S&P futures were down 0.6%. Havens were bid up, with the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen being the best performers in G-10 spot trading. European bonds rallied, with German two-year yields dropping 7 basis points, steepening the curve. Crude futures pared gains, spot gold dropped to near $1,800/oz. Bitcoin drifted back below $20,000. Today's economic data is limited to the final May durable goods orders and factory orders at 10 a.m., with Canadian Building Permits crossing at 8:30 a.m. Central banks are quiet: BOE's Silvana Tenreyro will speak at 12:30 p.m. on the role of central banks in transforming monetary and fiscal policy interactions. Ford is scheduled to post June sales numbers. Here's what caught our eye over the weekend. If there's one chart that tells you how the world has changed, it's this one on the German trade balance. Yesterday, the country posted its first monthly trade deficit since 1991. For years, the story was all about Germany's monster trade surplus and how the country acted as this huge global demand sponge, helped in part by a structurally weak euro. Now it's abruptly come to an end. Robin Brooks, chief economist of the IIF, put it this way: "Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world." Of course, the cheap energy is all gone, helping to send the imports bill soaring. And there's risk of a double whammy, if higher energy costs also render some of Germany's domestic manufacturing uneconomical, threatening export revenue as well. As my colleagues Gerson Freitas, Sephen Stapczynsky, and Anna Shiryaevskaya write about in today's must-read piece, the era of expensive natural gas is rearranging the entire world economic order. While I'm here, in unrelated news, over the long weekend, I had the chance to catch Mars Junction, the 90s cover band fronted by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, co-founders of the crypto exchange Gemini (and also of Facebook origin story fame). They played at the Talkhouse in Amagansett, NY and the crowd was actually pretty into their covers from bands like Nirvana and Blink-182. If the crypto thing fizzles, this will be a good next project. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter @TheStalwart | 
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