Monday, July 4, 2022

5 things to start your day

Here's what people are talking about.

Good morning. Taming inflation becomes harder for France, a possible bailout for Uniper, China and US talk trade, and Ukraine needs more money than what allies have pledged. Here's what people are talking about. 

Out of Steam

French President Emmanuel Macron's standout success in using public spending to tame rampant inflation is reaching its limits as a swelling debt burden and the loss of a governing majority curtail his ability to act. Until now, France could boast the lowest inflation in the entire euro-area — with the exception of island state Malta — after 25 billion euros in pre-election giveaways kept the rate in check. Yet rising prices are becoming harder to offset as they spread beyond energy to engulf food, goods and services.

Saving Uniper

German gas giant Uniper is in talks with the government over a potential bailout package of as much as 9 billion euros, according to a person familiar with the situation. The government is looking at applying a set of measures, including loans, taking an equity stake and also passing part of the surge in costs onto customers, sources say. The company, which is one of the biggest importers of Russian gas, said last week it was in talks with the government to secure liquidity. Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled over the weekend the government could use bailout tools created during the pandemic to rescue Lufthansa in the current crisis.

China-US Trade

China's Vice Premier Liu He discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs in a call with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen following reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some trade levies on Chinese goods. Expectations on the Biden administration to ease some of the taxes to help lower the costs of everyday merchandise have increased as inflation in US soared this year. But analysts say scrapping the tariffs would have only a marginal effect on US inflation and China's trade.

Ukraine Needs More Money

Ukraine has indicated that it needs $60 billion to $65 billion this year to meet its funding requirements, billions more than its allies have so far pledged. The amount needed immediately includes so called macro-financial stability assistance for emergency budget funding and logistics infrastructure projects. The figure is part of a larger blueprint for the nation's longer-term reconstruction, but it is unclear how Ukraine's allies will be able to cover that level of spending.

Coming Up…

European equity futures are pointing up modestly after Asian stocks and US equity futures pared gains. An earlier lift to investor sentiment from a potential improvement in US-China ties ebbed. Expected data include services PMIs from Sweden, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the UK. Sainsbury is scheduled to report sales.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac is interested in this morning

In a worrying sign for global equity bulls, semiconductor stocks are once more leading the market lower. The MSCI AC World Semiconductor Index has fallen to its lowest since 2020 relative to the broader gauge, down close to 40% this year. Often seen as a leading indicator for the stock market, chipmakers were already under pressure to increase prices to counteract the rising costs of materials and logistics. But Micron Technology— the largest US maker of memory semiconductors — gave a profit warning last week that flagged demand is now cooling for chips used in computers and smartphones. And fears of a recession have battered the shares of Asia's chip giants TSMC and Samsung. The semi index is trading at just under 13 times forward earnings, compared with 14 times for the global stocks gauge, so valuations have come down. But analysts have only cut 12-month earnings estimates by 3%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, so there is likely room for further downside. Also, the sector traded at a discount for much of the last decade, only flipping to a premium in 2019. It's hard to envisage a global equity rebound if semi stocks aren't participating.

Cormac Mullen is a Deputy Managing Editor in the Markets team for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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