| No mention of Taiwan in Nancy Pelosi's Asia agenda. Chinese banks face a $350 billion mortgage hit. Gold secrets of JPMorgan are revealed. Here's what you need to know today. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Asian countries including Singapore and Japan on her trip to the region, according to a statement from her office that skipped any mention of a possible stopover in Taiwan. Reports that her travel would include a stop on the island had sparked a furious reaction in China, which regards the self-governing island as part of its territory. Beijing warned there would be consequences if Pelosi visits, including a Defense Ministry statement that implied China might use military force in response. Pelosi will lead a congressional delegation that will also visit Malaysia and South Korea, according to the statement on Sunday. Read more here about "The Four Mysteries of Pelosi's Troublesome Taiwan Trip." China's banks face mortgage losses of $350 billion in a worst-case scenario as confidence plunges in the nation's property market and authorities struggle to contain deepening turmoil. A spiraling crisis of stalled projects has dented the confidence of hundreds of thousands of homebuyers, triggering a mortgage boycott across more than 90 cities. Get the full story here. Meanwhile China's factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July, reversing earlier economic momentum as sporadic Covid outbreaks weigh on the recovery, and real estate giant China Evergrande — the world's most indebted developer — failed to deliver a "preliminary restructuring plan" it had promised by the end of July.  | Australia is on track for its steepest tightening of monetary policy in a generation, raising the risk of an economic slowdown as the housing market shifts into reverse and consumers pull back on spending. The Reserve Bank of Australia will lift its key interest rate by 50 basis points for a third consecutive month on Tuesday to 1.85%, according to all but one of 23 economists surveyed. That will take its combined tightening since May to 175 basis points, the biggest increase inside six months since 1994. Policy makers are trying to rein in inflation that's running at more than twice the upper end of the RBA's 2% to 3% target. Stocks in Asia face a mixed start to the month as the economic and regulatory challenges swirling around China temper some of the optimism sparked by a recent rebound in risk appetite. Futures rose for Japan and Australia but fell for Hong Kong following the best month for global shares since 2020. Treasuries begin August with the 10-year yield at 2.65%, down from June's peak near 3.50%. The trial of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s former head of precious metals has offered unprecedented insights into the trading desk that dominates the global gold market. Michael Nowak, who ran precious metals trading at JPMorgan for over a decade, is being tried in Chicago along with colleagues Gregg Smith and Jeffrey Ruffo for conspiring to manipulate gold and silver markets. The proceedings have shone a new light on the inner workings of the business, from its profitability and market share to its largest clients and huge pay packets. Get the full story here. The surge in US stocks over July was quite a feat considering the ugly economic context. Another 75-basis-point interest-rate hike cemented the steepest tightening moves in 40 years, after the latest upside surprise on CPI underscored just why the Federal Reserve is being so aggressive. The non-inflation section of the data menu showed the economy is wilting, with slumps in activity gauges and a contraction for second-quarter gross domestic product. The latter part was seemingly all that mattered and if you focus very narrowly on the idea that a severe economic slowdown means fewer rate hikes going forward, then the 13% spike in the Nasdaq 100 might make some sort of sense. The concern going forward is that gains of this magnitude have normally failed to signal a sustained turnaround in either US services activity or the Nasdaq 100 itself. The jury remains out on whether recent rallies are a bear-market trap or a turnaround signal. Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney. | 
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