Thursday, June 30, 2022

The Supreme Court just made climate change more expensive

Plus: Power to the people.

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a flag-waving flight through Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

Supreme Court: 1, Administrative State: 0

It's hard to think of a more momentous week in Supreme Court history, based on sheer volume of precedent-destroying decisions alone.

Since Friday, the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade, opened the door to more guns on our streets and smashed the Jersey barrier between church and state. Today it swung its wrecking ball at the country's regulatory scaffolding, hobbling the EPA's ability to fight global warming. Now it will be up to states to try to make energy cleaner and more efficient, Liam Denning notes, a far more costly and inefficient way of going about it.

The court did not, as some had feared, negate the entire rationale of government rules keeping our water, air, drugs, markets and workplaces safe, notes Noah Feldman. But it invented a powerful new tool for doing away with regulations the court doesn't like. If we've learned anything from this past week, it's that this court will use whatever demolition tools are at hand. — Mark Gongloff

The Proles Are Rising Up 

In a May 2020 paper, economists Anna Stansbury and Lawrence Summers argued that declining worker power has been the defining characteristic of the US macroeconomic environment for a generation, explaining companies' rising profitability, as well as stagnant wage growth, a declining share of income for labor, and reduced unemployment and inflation. Those days may now be ending. 

Labor's share of national income has been declining for decades, along with trade union membership. In the US, just 10% of the workforce belongs to a union, a level that's halved in the past four decades. In the UK, the proportion of union members has declined to a record low of 23%. But the pandemic laid bare how reliant the West is on its army of key workers, often among the lowest paid in society and without the luxury of being able to work from home. As the cost of living surges everywhere and with the jobs market tightening, employees are starting to demand more, argues Chris Bryant.

"Employees are finding their collective voice again, and not before time," Chris writes. "What better way to neutralize the debate about inflation-stoking corporate profiteering than by giving workers their fair share of the spoils?"

What the Economy Needs May Get Is an Inflation-Busting Recession

Inflation has turned out to be anything but transitory. In the world's biggest economies, consumer prices are rising at quadruple the rates targeted by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. But with monetary conditions already tightening in anticipation of central bankers (belatedly) slamming on the brakes, financial markets are shifting their attention to the risk of recession. 

"Inflation almost seems passe," writes John Authers. "The worry of the moment is now economic growth." John points to the five-year, five-year forward breakeven rate — used by central banks to gauge inflation expectations — which has now dropped back below its level for much of 2018 and is fast approaching the Fed's target of 2%. "The bond market is saying that inflation is no longer anything to worry about," John argues.

Pessimism about the economic outlook is prompting traders to anticipate that US interest rates may actually start to decline in the second half of next year. "It might be necessary to force a recession to get rid of inflation, but the recession that would result from letting price pressures take deeper root would be even worse," is John's takeaway from comments made by policy makers this week. 

Curbing Classroom Carnage

Metal detectors. Armed security. High metal fences. Bulletproof glass. Weapons sensors. Facial-recognition software. Drones.

Kids have always felt that attending school is akin to being jailed. These days, the proliferation of prison-like paraphernalia means those complaints ring truer than ever. Schools and colleges in the US are estimated to have spent $3.1 billion on security products last year, as they react to a steady increase in campus shootings. But do such measures work? 

"The steps they are taking risk reinforcing an unhealthy culture of surveillance without actually preventing violence," argues Parmy Olson. While buying technology may make adults feel they're doing more to protect children, there's little evidence that extra cameras and weapons scanners lead to less gun violence. "Surveillance technology doesn't address the underlying cause of school shootings, and there is little evidence that it protects children from violence," Parmy writes. "But it does soothe adults' nerves."

Telltale Charts

Shares in Chinese artificial intelligence company SenseTime Group Inc. fell by as much as 51% Thursday, dropping below the price at which the company listed its shares in December. But the firm's woes run deeper than early investors cashing out after the expiry of a lockup: "A slowing Chinese economy, US sanctions, and the company's heavy reliance on government contracts don't bode well," writes Tim Culpan.

Further Reading

The wheels are — literally — coming off electric vehicles. — Anjani Trivedi

How Catholicism lost its political clout in the Philippines. — Daniel Moss

How Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani will divide his empire to avoid his father's folly. — Andy Mukherjee

Seeing the world through Leonardo Del Vecchio's Ray-Bans. — Rachel Sanderson

That EY cheatsheet won't work anymore. — Chris Hughes

How to retire in a recession. — Teresa Ghilarducci

A Special Dancing-on-Crypto's-Grave ICYMI Section

How the world's biggest bitcoin hack turned into a botched job.

European Union moves closer to strict anti-money laundering rules on cryptocurrencies.

Non-fungible tokens have fallen off a cliff, with sales in the market for artwork of bored apes and pudgy pensions dropping to their lowest in a year.

Crypto lender Genesis Trading faces potential losses running into the "hundreds of millions" of dollars, according to Coindesk.

North Korean hackers suspected in $100 million heist of Californian blockchain Harmony.

Bitcoin is poised for its biggest quarterly decline in more than a decade.

Kickers

Area man has expensive video-game collection stolen.

Beer made from recycled toilet water, by disinfecting sewage with ultraviolet light and passing the liquid through membranes to remove contaminant particles, wins admirers in Singapore (and a big "No, thanks" from me).

Gucci has launched a collection for pets. Would Fido ever forgive you though? (h/t Andrea Felsted)

Notes: Please send have-fun-staying-poor advice and complaints to Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net.

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