Crypto News: Indyref redux?

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Here we go again — Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon this afternoon pledged to seek another Scottish referendum. Those of us who covered Referendum 1.0 in 2014 remember her predecessor, Alex Salmond, saying on losing that poll that the issue was "settled for a generation." We're not sure we feel old enough for it be back.

But possibly the politics of this move are as much about a referendum not happening, as about the possibility of one going ahead. But in the likely case that both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the UK Supreme Court say no to a poll, Sturgeon has said she'll fight the 2024 general election on a single issue: independence. She is banking on it revving up her nationalist base. This is what a "neverendum" looks like.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday. Photographer: Lesley Martin/PA Wire

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Boris Johnson began his current diplomatic whirlwind on Thursday. Today the peregrinating prime minister touched down in Madrid ahead of a NATO summit. It's the final stop before domestic duties resume, and his team thinks it's been worth it.

"Strategic endurance" — a Johnsonian slogan — became a catchphrase of the just-finished G-7 leaders' meeting, one Downing Street aide told me. The Germany summit focused on helping Ukraine to defend itself, freeing it to trade via the Black Sea and rebuilding the country, they said. On all of these the UK has been resolute. Concerns have receded about "fractiousness" in the group, with all leaders now seen as firmly behind Ukraine.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses G-7 leaders on June 27. Photographer: Tobias Schwarz/AFP

This may be high-stakes geopolitics, but it also sounds like therapy for world leaders. Johnson famously called his relationship with Macron "le bromance". The pair may have bickered over Brexit in the past; today they are both absorbing the lessons of recent electoral shellackings. With the G-7 leaders almost all having a rough time back home, most would have found Bavaria a welcome retreat.

Behind the headlines, the most actively helpful meeting for Johnson's team was a so-called "mini-lateral" between the UK, Japan and Canada. The three nations see themselves as maritime nations operating close to much larger but slow-moving neighbors (the EU for the UK; the US for Canada; China for Japan.)

And yet, the Japanese publicly briefed against the UK, saying that they need Johnson to strike a deal with the EU over Northern Ireland, in order to protect Japanese companies already impacted by the Brexit divorce. The reality of the UK's Pacific tilt is a complex one.

But what about domestic politics? Wasn't last night's House of Commons vote on the new Brexit bill a potential embarrassment? No chance. As the G-7 leaders met, Russia bombed a Ukrainian supermarket. "I'm sorry, but the hangover of Brexit really didn't even get a mention," one Johnson aide told me.

The main event was resetting resolve on Ukraine. And the view from Downing Street is that this was achieved. After acknowledging war fatigue, the leaders all agreed to stand firm.

So now what? Harder winter months and an energy crunch that has only just begun. That's what.

Britain is getting greyer. New census figures for England and Wales show that more people than ever are aged over 65. The Queen's longevity is no fluke, either: There are more than half a million people aged over 90. There are other trends, but the age figures are alarming. They show a bulge in the number of working-age people near retirement. This is an expensive demographic drift. Only last week Prime Minister Boris Johnson approved pensions going up by inflation — price tag: £10 billion — when wages will struggle to do anything like the same. As we might have mentioned, the UK economy is in a precarious position. Today's census will make the headache worse.

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Betting against the Bank of Japan has confounded some of the biggest names in global finance in recent decades. "It's called the 'widow-maker' trade for a reason, and I have no intention of joining the ranks of such traders," said one leading investor.

And yet, cocksure traders from London to New York are lining up once again to take a shot. As interest rates rise elsewhere, more and more are betting the BOJ will be forced to change tack. As the yen gets pummeled, investors once again doubt its resolve.

The wagers are pile up — and they're starting to put strain on the more than $7.4 trillion Japanese bond market, heaping stress on the global economy.

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