Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Bombshell Jan. 6 testimony makes Trump look worse somehow

Plus: Time the market.

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Today's Agenda

An exchange between Melania Trump and her chief-of-staff Stephanie Grisham Source: Stephanie Grisham via Twitter

The Ketchup Is on the Wall

Today was one of those bombshell news days where you realize that, despite a war, pandemic and inflation, things are arguably more normal now than they were during the Trump presidency. 

The day's star was Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to Mark Meadows, who was President Donald Trump's chief of staff. She revealed a number of things about Jan. 6, including the fact that Trump:

  1. Knew the Capitol rioters were armed
  2. Understood their weapons weren't meant for him
  3. Heard them chanting "hang Mike Pence"
  4. Wanted them to stay armed and keep marching
  5. Tried to grab the steering wheel of his limo to go to the Capitol
  6. Proceeded to throw his lunch at the wall and get ketchup everywhere

"Never in history have we ever heard credible testimony before Congress this shocking against a President of the United States," Michael Beschloss tweeted. It may not be enough yet to charge the former president with a crime. But it's certainly enough to make you wonder if he deserves a second chance to break the White House crockery.

"Trump is an unhinged narcissist who flies into rages when he doesn't get his way — especially when his team won't help him stage a coup," Tim O'Brien summed up in a tweet. We'll have columns on the testimony later this evening from both  Tim O'Brien and Jonathan Bernstein, which you can find at their linked article pages.

Play the Game and Make It Rain

Disclaimer: I am rather terrible at tennis. But my sister and I decided to pick up the sport early on in the pandemic as a way to stay active in New York City. We play on the courts on the West Side Highway, which are free to the public, as long as you can tolerate Disney-ride-length wait times. Many players try to game the system by arriving at dawn. Some will even hire professional line sitters that charge $50 for 2 hours.

In a way, the stock market is sort of like these courts: It's open to average Joes and experts alike. But sometimes foul conditions and the poor judgment of other people can ruin your game. But don't give up. Jared Dillian writes that although "novice investors are constantly told to never – never! - time the market," he thinks normal people should try to buy the dip at least once or twice in their investing careers to see if they can boost returns.  

Some investors have gotten more soaked than others in the inflation-recession storm. See, for example, the stock-picking arm of New York-based Tiger Global, whose main hedge fund was down 52% in the first five months of this year, notes Shuli Ren.

Although we're in the midst of "one of the best-predicted bear-market rallies in recent history," as Jonathan Levin notes, plenty of experts are having trouble predicting whether a recent market rally will last. That's partly because nobody really knows the future trajectory of interest rates, as John Authers writes. Even the pros can struggle with tricky bounces.

Capitalists on Mars

Things are getting a little … weird on college campuses:

  1. MBA students are no longer into capitalism.
  2. A Yale political science class drafted a  30-page constitution for Mars.

Neither of these are especially normal. Allison Schrager writes that business school — designed to crank out ruthless capitalists — is now a place for market-power skeptics. These students are no longer charmed by America's capitalistic tendencies. Instead, they see the economy as a zero-sum game: "If someone gets rich, someone else must be poorer. If there is more growth, it must be bad for the planet," which came as a surprise to Allison, who says she "was taught something very different: that everyone benefits from rising prosperity."

Meanwhile, Yale undergrads are wondering how to make a Mars settlement democratic. First off: We don't even have the rocks yet, people! Secondly, Tyler Cowen says we might need to take a step back to ask a more troubling question: Should a Mars settlement involve contractual servitude? "If poorer people are not allowed to sign up for these funded voyages, then maybe only billionaires will visit Mars," Tyler writes. Luckily, future MBA grads won't let billionaires take over Mars, will they?

Telltale Charts

With gas at $5 a gallon, fewer people have the spare change to score a fresh pair of Air Jordans. Nike shares have fallen by about 34% this year, and Andrea Felsted warns the pain could just be getting started.

Pretty soon, crypto enthusiasts could be saying goodbye to their side hustle. Just months ago, Coinbase influencers were making $40 for each new sign-up. Now they're being offered $2 to $3. Lionel Laurent calls this a welcome development.

Further Reading

Let's take a minute to enjoy the irony of CPAs cheating (!!!) on their ethics exams— Matt Levine

The wealth manager who helped a cocaine-smuggling wrestler launder millions of dollars is guilty, and so is Credit Suisse. — Paul Davies

The 1997 Asian financial crisis changed the world order as we know it. — Dan Moss

Happy 10th birthday, Crispr! You've got a bit of maturing to do before you revolutionize the medical world.  — Lisa Jarvis

India's central bank hates the concept of buy now, pay later— Andy Mukherjee

Serious question: Who is going to eat all those corn dogs if Iowa isn't the first state to vote— Jonathan Bernstein

ICYMI

The G-7 agrees to explore capping Russian oil prices. And also no ties.

Ghislaine Maxwell gets 20 years in prison.

The San Antonio migrant trailer death toll rises to 51.

Kickers

Climate change is creating "snow blood" in the Alps. (h/t Atika Valbrun)

Maybe Trump should try ketchup-flavored popsicles.

NASA catches someone auctioning off its moon dust and cockroaches. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Notes:  Please send ketchup-flavored popsicles and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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