| Good morning. OPEC+ agreed to boost oil supply, a fat-finger trade at Citigroup, Brainard sees no case for pausing Fed rate hikes and a bleak warning from BlackRock. Here's what people are talking about. OPEC+ agreed to open its oil taps faster in the summer months, a gesture of reconciliation to the US that nevertheless keeps Russia at the heart of the cartel. The modest supply boost—amounting to just 0.4% of global demand over July and August—may ease tight markets, but it leaves unanswered the question of whether the US can turn Saudi Arabia into an ally in its campaign to economically isolate Russia. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have enough spare capacity to offset a significant portion of the supply gap created by sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Much of that will remain untapped even after the July and August production increases. Citigroup may record losses of at least $50 million following a fat-finger trade that caused a flash crash in European stocks last month, according to people familiar with the matter. The bank is still tallying losses from the mistaken trade and the final figure could balloon higher. A trader in the firm's Delta One trading unit in London was working from home during a bank holiday on May 2 when the person incorrectly added an extra zero to a trade. The mistake is a blow for Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser as well as the firm's equities chief Fater Belbachir, who has been seeking to increase Citigroup's revenue from stock trading.  | Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said expectations for half-percentage-point increases in US interest rates this month and next were reasonable, and saw no case for pausing the central bank's tightening campaign afterward. "Right now it's very hard to see the case for a pause. We've still got a lot of work to do to get inflation down to our 2% target," Brainard said Thursday in an interview with CNBC. Her remarks were the latest from officials to reinforce the message that they're staying the course on hiking rates. Financial markets have swung sharply as investors fret the Fed's efforts to curb inflation could trigger a recession. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said he expects inflation to remain elevated for several years primarily because of snarled global supply chains. The world's largest asset manager is navigating a world beset by surging inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical upheaval. Fink had previously said the war in Ukraine created profound changes to the global economy, forcing companies and governments to reconsider their reliance on foreign markets. His remarks came a day after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors to prepare for an economic "hurricane." European shares are on course to follow Asian stocks higher ahead of a key US jobs report. Investors will be eyeing the data for clues on the pace of policy tightening. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization releases its monthly food price index amid growing concerns over global supplies. Sweden, Spain, Italy, France and Germany all report services PMIs. With all that data to sift through, thankfully it's a light day for earnings. This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. Much like a Saturday night variety show, today's stock market leading indicators have something for everyone in the audience. Three key gauges for US equities—semiconductors, small caps and transport shares—each show a mixed picture of relative performance, suggesting the current period of choppy trading is likely to continue. All three cohorts are sensitive to the underlying economy, which make them useful measures of direction in the stock market. When they rolled over at the same time earlier this year, it presaged the slump in equities. Bulls will be pleased to see semi stocks breaking out of their year-to-date downtrend, amid anecdotal evidence the chip crunch is easing and demand staying strong. Still, small caps remain mired in their downtrend. That will bolster the case for bears, as they are not only sensitive to economic growth concerns but also worries about liquidity and volatility. Transport shares—a long-time leading indicator for the broader market—look trendless, offering little insight to traders. Overall the gauges reflect the mixed feelings in the global stock market, with investors deeply suspicious about any tentative rally but unwilling to bet big on a return to fresh lows. Cormac Mullen is a Deputy Managing Editor in the Markets team for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. | 
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