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Russia's crypto pivot: Sanctions rail expands as Moscow tightens the domestic net |
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Key points: |
Russia-linked stablecoin network A7A5 has been tied to tens of billions in sanctions-related flows, with TRM Labs reporting $141B in illicit stablecoin activity globally in 2025. As crypto becomes a tool for cross-border trade and evasion, Moscow is simultaneously preparing mass blocking of foreign exchanges and stricter state-controlled regulation by 2026.
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News - A Russia-linked stablecoin ecosystem is drawing global scrutiny as blockchain analytics firms flag a surge in sanctions-related crypto activity. |
TRM Labs reported that illicit stablecoin flows reached $141B in 2025, the highest level in five years. Russia sits at the center of that activity, with the A7 network playing a dominant role. Wallets tied to the A7 ecosystem accounted for at least $39B in sanctions-related flows, while separate reporting linked roughly $72B of illicit flows directly to the ruble-pegged A7A5 token. |
A7A5 was introduced in February 2025 by the A7 financial platform and later traded on Moscow-based Garantex before shifting activity to platforms such as Grinex and Bitpapa after Garantex was sanctioned and shut down. Analysts describe the network as a parallel payment rail used for cross-border transfers within sanctions-linked ecosystems. |
Stablecoins as a sanctions workaround - Sanctions evasion represented 86% of illicit crypto flows in 2025, according to TRM Labs. Stablecoins were central to that activity, offering fast cross-border settlement outside traditional banking rails. |
The A7 network has intersected with entities across China, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, forming what analysts characterize as a durable financial infrastructure rather than isolated criminal activity. Guarantee marketplaces also peaked at over $17B in quarterly volume in mid-2025, with 99% of activity conducted in stablecoins. |
Despite the scale, illicit stablecoin flows accounted for roughly 1% of total annualized stablecoin volume, estimated at about $12T. |
Moscow's regulatory clampdown - While crypto facilitates sanctions-linked activity abroad, Russian authorities are moving toward tighter domestic oversight. Officials plan to transition to a fully state-controlled framework by July 1, 2026, with mandatory licensing for exchanges and potential large-scale blocking of foreign platforms through Roskomnadzor. |
Regulators cite an estimated $15B in annual commission fees flowing to foreign exchanges as justification for reform. New rules may impose retail caps, reporting requirements, and criminal penalties for unlicensed activity by 2027. |
Separately, crypto surfaced in a U.S. prosecution where an Australian executive admitted selling sensitive cyber tools to a Russian broker for $1.26M in crypto, underscoring how digital assets are increasingly appearing in national security cases. |
Together, the developments reflect a dual trend: crypto as a geopolitical payment rail and governments racing to control it. |
XRP compression builds as stablecoin integration, reserve drain, and lending expansion reshape setup |
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Key points: |
XRP hovered near $1.42 after defending the $1.39–$1.40 support zone, with traders watching $1.44 as the near-term trigger toward $1.50 and $1.62. Binance reserves fell by roughly 200 million XRP in 10 days, while SG-FORGE launched its euro stablecoin on XRPL and Coinbase added wrapped XRP to its on-chain lending program.
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News - XRP consolidated around $1.42 as volatility slipped to levels last seen ahead of a major 2024 rally, fueling speculation that the recent downtrend may be losing momentum. |
On the adoption front, Societe Generale-FORGE confirmed that its euro-denominated stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible, is now live on the XRP Ledger. The integration expands EURCV's availability beyond Ethereum and leverages XRPL's scalability and low-cost infrastructure, supported by Ripple's custody solutions. |
Meanwhile, exchange data showed Binance's XRP supply ratio declining from 0.027 to 0.025 over 10 days, implying roughly 200 million tokens moved into private wallets. Centralized-exchange balances now sit near multi-year lows. |
Adding another structural shift, Coinbase expanded its lending platform to include wrapped XRP, allowing eligible U.S. users to borrow up to $100,000 in USDC through Morpho on Base. |
Compression near cycle lows - Historical volatility has dropped to levels that previously marked a base before a broader rally. Technically, XRP held support near $1.39, while price stalled below the $1.44–$1.45 ceiling, keeping the structure cautious. |
A reclaim of $1.44 could reopen a path toward $1.50 and potentially $1.62. On the downside, a break below $1.39 would expose $1.35, with broader charts still showing resistance at $1.50–$1.54 and $1.66. |
Liquidity shifts and leverage reset - Despite structural adoption headlines, XRP remains sensitive to macro-driven risk sentiment. Since early February, leverage unwinds and soft institutional flows have kept rallies muted, with intermittent outflows reflecting tactical positioning rather than aggressive dip buying. |
While exchange outflows reduce immediate sell-side supply, lending access introduces collateral liquidation risk if prices fall sharply. |
For now, XRP sits in a tightening range where reduced volatility, shrinking exchange balances, and incremental ecosystem developments are building pressure for the next decisive move. |
Clarity Act odds spike, but Senate showdown over stablecoins clouds path |
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Key points: |
Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act reaching law jumped to 82% before easing to 78%, as the White House pushes a March 1 timeline to advance negotiations. While Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse sees a 90% chance of passage by April, Senate friction over stablecoin rewards and ethics concerns tied to Trump-linked crypto projects remain key hurdles.
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News - Confidence around the long-debated Clarity Act surged this week after Polymarket bettors briefly priced its 2026 passage at 82%, up sharply from around 60% just days earlier. The figure later eased to 78%, but still reflects a meaningful shift in sentiment. |
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse added to the optimism, telling Fox Business he believes there is a 90% chance the bill passes by the end of April. He cited renewed White House engagement and recent meetings involving both crypto leaders and traditional banking representatives. |
The legislation aims to define which digital assets fall under securities laws and which would be overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It passed the House last July, but the Senate version remains stalled. |
Stablecoin rewards at the center of tensions - A key sticking point is whether crypto platforms should be allowed to offer stablecoin rewards without being treated like deposit-taking institutions. U.S. officials, banks, and crypto industry groups resumed discussions at the White House this week to address that issue. |
Banks argue that incentive-bearing stablecoins could blur the line with traditional deposits. Crypto firms counter that prohibiting rewards could weaken competitiveness and push innovation offshore. No agreement has been announced. |
Coinbase has already withdrawn support for the Senate's amended version, which expands SEC authority and tightens stablecoin provisions. |
Optimism meets political reality - Despite rising prediction market odds, some industry leaders remain cautious. Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long described the bill's Senate prospects as a "coin flip," arguing that controversy surrounding Trump-linked crypto ventures has complicated bipartisan support. She noted that advancing the bill would require securing the 60 votes needed for cloture. |
For now, March 1 stands as a key milestone. Whether lawmakers can bridge differences on stablecoin rewards and broader oversight will determine if momentum translates into durable regulatory clarity. |
Metaplanet under fire: CEO defends Bitcoin strategy amid $1.2B losses |
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Key points: |
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich rejected claims the company concealed Bitcoin trades or borrowing terms, pointing to real-time wallet disclosures and timely announcements of September 2025 purchases. As the firm sits on over $1.2B in unrealized BTC losses, Japan's fiscal expansion and potential BOJ rate hikes add macro pressure to the corporate Bitcoin treasury model.
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News - Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich has refuted claims made online that the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company misled investors about its BTC strategy, derivatives exposure, and borrowing disclosures. |
Critics alleged the firm bought near a local market peak, delayed price-sensitive announcements, and failed to fully disclose terms tied to BTC-backed borrowing. Gerovich countered that all Bitcoin purchases, options strategies, and credit drawdowns were promptly reported. The company's public dashboard lists wallet addresses and confirms four September 2025 purchases totaling thousands of BTC. |
Metaplanet reported fiscal 2025 revenue of ¥8.9B, up roughly 738% year over year, alongside operating profit of ¥6.2B. However, it also booked significant net losses tied to mark-to-market declines in its Bitcoin holdings. CoinGecko currently tracks the company's unrealized BTC losses at over $1.2B. |
Gerovich argued that net profit is not an appropriate metric for evaluating a Bitcoin treasury firm, attributing accounting losses to unrealized fluctuations rather than realized damage. He also defended the company's use of put options and put spreads, describing the strategy as a way to acquire BTC below spot and monetize volatility. |
Transparency vs governance pressure - The dispute highlights a broader tension facing corporate Bitcoin holders. While on-chain wallets are transparent, securities disclosure standards demand clarity around borrowing costs, counterparties, and risk exposure. |
Metaplanet holds 35,102 BTC and trades near ¥307 per share, after shares declined sharply from 2025 highs. The company has established credit facilities and disclosed drawdowns, though some borrowing details remain confidential at counterparties' request. |
Macro backdrop: Japan's debt and rate risk - Japan's government recently advanced fiscal bills that lock in record spending and continued deficit bond issuance, with national debt near 250% of GDP. Analysts warn that further Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening could pressure risk assets. |
Previous BOJ rate hikes triggered Bitcoin drawdowns of 23% to 31% during 2024 and early 2025. Economists now see a high probability of another hike by April 2026, potentially testing liquidity conditions that corporate Bitcoin treasuries depend on. |
For Metaplanet and its peers, the debate is no longer just about accounting. It is about how leverage, transparency, and macro liquidity intersect in the era of publicly traded Bitcoin balance sheets. |
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More stories from the crypto ecosystem |
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Crypto scams uncovered |
"AI signals" were the bait in a $14M social media scam: Fake crypto trading platforms and affiliated "investment clubs" allegedly used AI-generated trading tips, bogus licenses, and invented withdrawal fees to extract more than $14M from U.S. retail investors, according to the SEC's enforcement action. Samourai Wallet founders sentenced over unlicensed crypto mixing: Co-founders of the privacy-centric Samourai Wallet pled guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business tied to mixing services that processed over $2 billion in total volume, including more than $237 million in traceable criminal proceeds. They were sentenced in late 2025, marking a major crypto privacy enforcement milestone. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao ordered to forfeit $50M: In November 2023, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao agreed to forfeit $50M as part of a U.S. plea deal tied to anti-money laundering violations, following Binance's $4.3B settlement with federal authorities over compliance failures involving illicit transaction flows.
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Top 3 coins of the day |
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) |
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Key points: |
TRUMP rebounded to $3.63, recovering from the recent low near $3.20–$3.30, but remained below the declining Madrid Ribbon. The Awesome Oscillator stayed negative near -0.597, yet printed consecutive green bars, signaling strengthening short-term momentum alongside a pickup in volume.
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What you should know: |
After an extended slide from the $8.00–$9.00 region, TRUMP found footing near $3.20 and pushed higher toward $3.80 before settling at $3.63. Despite the rebound, price continued trading beneath the broader Madrid Ribbon, which remains downward sloping and layered above current levels, indicating the larger trend has not yet reversed. |
Momentum showed visible improvement. Although the Awesome Oscillator remained below zero, it shifted into sustained green bars, reflecting a recovery phase within a still-bearish macro structure. Volume expanded during the bounce, aligning with reported increases in speculative flows across Trump-themed memecoins. |
Holding $3.50 preserves short-term structure, while $3.80–$4.00 acts as immediate resistance. A failure to defend $3.50 reopens downside risk toward $3.20. |
Avalanche (AVAX) |
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Key points: |
AVAX climbed to $9.09, rebounding from the recent $8.70–$8.90 support zone while testing the 9-day SMA near $9.13. Stochastic RSI advanced toward the upper band at 68.93 / 72.63, and volume strengthened during the recovery phase, signaling renewed short-term participation.
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What you should know: |
AVAX attempted to stabilize after sliding from the $14.50–$15.00 region into February's lows near $8.60–$8.70. The latest daily candles showed price reclaiming ground above recent swing lows, though it continued hovering just beneath the 9-day SMA at $9.13, which remains downward sloping and acts as immediate dynamic resistance. |
Momentum improved as the Stochastic RSI pushed higher from previously compressed levels, approaching the upper threshold without entering extreme overbought territory. The bounce was accompanied by firmer volume compared to the prior consolidation sessions, suggesting buyers stepped in near structural support. |
For continuation, AVAX needs to clear and hold above $9.15–$9.20. Failure to maintain $8.90 exposes the $8.70 area again, where recent demand previously emerged. |
Solana (SOL) |
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Key points: |
SOL settled at $83 after rebounding from the $75–$78 capitulation zone, with price now consolidating near the Bollinger mid-band. CMF hovered around -0.02 while volume moderated after an earlier spike, as AI agent developments and memecoin fervor revived ecosystem attention.
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What you should know: |
Following a steep decline from the $140–$150 region, SOL printed a sharp selloff candle in early February that expanded the Bollinger Bands and pushed price into the lower band. Subsequent sessions showed stabilization above $80, with volatility beginning to compress as price migrated toward the mid-band. |
The Chaikin Money Flow recovered from deeper negative readings and approached neutral territory, indicating distribution pressure has eased though inflows remain limited. Volume peaked during the capitulation phase and has since cooled, aligning with consolidation rather than aggressive accumulation. |
Narrative momentum around AI agent developments on Solana and renewed memecoin fervor contributed to renewed trading interest across the ecosystem. |
Holding $80 keeps the short-term base intact, while $85–$90. stands as the next resistance cluster to reclaim. |
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