Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Markets Daily: Earnings risk

Market data as of 05:57 am EST. Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements. Donald Trump threatened to slap China with an a
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S&P 500 Futures 5,171.25 +1.45%
Nasdaq 100 Futures 17,773.75 +1.20%
Nikkei 225 33,012.58 +6.03%
US 10-Year Treasury Yield 4.16% -0.023
Stoxx Europe 600 Index 481.51 +1.58%
Market data as of 05:57 am EST. View or Create your Watchlist
Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements.

Five things you need to know

  • Donald Trump threatened to slap China with an added 50% import tax, while confusion reigned about how to gain exemptions from his sweeping global tariffs. China pledged to retaliate and stepped up efforts to support the market.
  • Stocks staged a modest recovery as investors looked for dip-buying opportunities while awaiting clarity on how the US trade policies will play out. Treasuries advanced after Monday's sharp selloff.
  • Warnings from Wall Street strategists are piling up on the dour outlook for stocks. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral from overweight on a three-month horizon, while Goldman Sachs said the selloff could well turn into a longer-lasting cyclical bear market. 
  • Chinese carmaker BYD flagged first-quarter profit may more than double after a bumper start to the year. The shares are up 23% in 2025, helped by the unveiling of an EV system that can charge in just five minutes.  
  • Iran confirmed Trump's announcement that it will hold talks with the US this weekend, following months of rising tensions over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

Do you think it's time to look at investing beyond US assets? Tell us in the latest MLIV Pulse survey.

Earnings risk

US stocks reeling from the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs face another big test starting this week: corporate earnings. And they're not looking good.  

For the first quarter, analysts now see earnings growth of 6.7% for S&P 500 companies, down from about 11.1% in early November when Trump was elected, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. For all of 2025, they see profits rising 9.4%, compared with a projection of 12.5% at the beginning of the year.

Investors have already chopped more than $5 trillion off the value of companies in the S&P 500 Index over the last three sessions as they fret that an escalating trade war risks slashing profits. Across Wall Street, analysts are echoing that gloomy take.

"With all this tariff uncertainty, when companies start reporting their results, the risk for the earnings outlook is definitely to the downside," said Sarah Hunt, chief market strategist and partner of Alpine Saxon Woods. 

Earnings season kicks off Friday with announcements from big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. 

Tariffs could hit consumers so hard that there's a risk that S&P 500 companies will see zero earnings growth this year according to Bhanu Baweja, UBS Investment Bank's chief strategist.

When companies start reporting they "won't have anything they can actually say other than that everything is so uncertain," said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management. "We've gone from the fog of a trade war to the fog of the earnings outlook."  —Natalia Kniazhevich

On the move

  • Apple rises 1.1% in premarket trading. The iPhone maker's shares have fallen 19% over the past three trading days, their biggest three-day collapse since July 2001.
  • Infineon falls 2.2% in Frankfurt, while Marvell rises 2.1%. Infineon agreed to buy Marvell's automotive networking business for $2.5 billion in cash to strengthen its industry-leading car unit. 
  •  Nvidia is leading the Magnificent Seven higher in premarket trading. Among Mag 7 movers: Nvidia (+2.9%), Amazon (+2.6%), Meta (+2.1%), Tesla (+1.7%), Alphabet (+1.6%). The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, an equal-weighted gauge of the stocks, has fallen 24% this year, after jumping 67% in 2024.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise falls 0.8% after Morgan Stanley cuts the stock to equal-weight from overweight. The bank notes that the tech company's thinner margin structure provides "less of a buffer to estimated tariffs." 
  • UnitedHealth rises 5.8% and Centene gains 5.2% after the US government said it will pay private insurers more money next year than it originally proposed in January.
  • Broadcom rises 3.6%. The supplier of semiconductors to Apple and other big tech companies plans to buy back as much as $10 billion in shares, saying it remains confident in the chip industry.
  • Walgreens Boots is set to report quarterly results before the bell. Wall Street will be focused on how the drugstore chain's sale to Sycamore Partners is progressing. —Subrat Patnaik
The Stock Movers Podcast: Five minutes on the day's stock market winners and losers. Click here to listen on apple podcasts

Challenge to Treasuries 

In the first rush for investment safe havens in years, US Treasury bonds are facing serious competition as a destination for global funds.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury have tumbled about 40 basis points this year, briefly pushed below 4% Monday by Trump's barrage of tariffs that economists say raise the risk of a recession.

In contrast, rates in both Europe and Japan have gone up. In Germany, the 10-year bund at 2.61% reflects the prospect of a flood of bond issuance as the government ramps up defense spending. Meanwhile, the rate on 10-year Japanese bonds has soared after spending years around zero and is now at 1.25% as investors brace for tighter monetary policy there.

While both are still well below Treasury yields, they're at levels that makes them look more attractive than Treasuries to European and Japanese investors who hedge their dollar exposure when buying US securities. That might entice investors to shift allocations to their home markets, where the policy outlook appears more stable. 

"The idea that various of the administration's policies could undermine foreign demand for Treasuries has been gaining currency," said Matthew Raskin, head of US rates research at Deutsche Bank. 

It all adds up to a world where US exceptionalism no longer is the dominant theme, with potentially momentous long-term implications: Deutsche Bank warns of a "confidence crisis" in the dollar, while UBS sees a shot in the arm to the euro's status as a global reserve currency. —Greg RitchieMichael Mackenzie and Mia Glass

Word from Wall Street

"Typically a market drawdown of 20% is when investors jump in across the board to buy, but we don't think this time is it. What we're seeing right now is very elevated uncertainty. There's lots of moving parts and it's impossible to have clarity beyond the very near term."

Wei Li
Global chief investment strategist, BlackRock
Click here for more from her Bloomberg TV interview

One number to start your day

$40
The level that Brent crude oil could drop below in "extreme" scenario, according to Goldman Sachs 

What else we're reading

'This Is Madness': The 15 Minutes That Rocked Stock Markets
Global Finance Upended by Tariff Reckoning Few Saw Coming
Billionaires Seek to Take Companies Private Amid Market Mayhem
Contrarian Who Saw US Crash Coming Touts Rest-of-World Trade
Larry Fink Says Most CEOs He Talks to Think US Is in a Recession
Trump's Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the Global Economy
Credit Markets Paralyzed by Trade War, Putting Debt Deals on Ice

Please share your thoughts on how we're doing and what we're missing. Contact us at marketsdaily@bloomberg.net.

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