Thursday, February 27, 2025

Supply Lines: US tariff confusion

President Donald Trump left investors and trade officials around the world scratching their heads about when his threatened tariffs will tak
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President Donald Trump left investors and trade officials around the world scratching their heads about when his threatened tariffs will take effect and how broad they'll be. One of his top trade advisers disagreed that there was added confusion.

Trump has announced a series of planned measures since he took office:

  • Broad 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada set to take effect March 4 after a month-long delay
  • Steel and aluminum duties due to kick in March 12
  • "Reciprocal tariffs" to be levied against imports from many countries as soon as early April
  • Tariffs of 25% on autos, lumber, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals with an announcement as soon as April 2

On Wednesday, the president gave a series of confusing answers about his plans to impose tariffs. He also said he'll target the European Union with 25% import taxes on their "cars and all other things," adding that "we'll be announcing it very soon." (Click here to read the full story and watch him deliver the remarks here.)

  • In a research note on the Terminal, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the hit to EU's gross domestic product from an across-the-board 25% tariff would be as much as 1.5%.

In his remarks, Trump initially said he was "not stopping" the tariffs planned for March 4 on Canada and Mexico, which would be 25% on most items and 10% on key Canadian energy products, including oil. But he later said the tariffs would be implemented on April 2.

"The tariffs go on, not all of them, but a lot of them," Trump said of the April deadline. "And I think you're going to see something that's going to be amazing."

Some currency and commodity markets interpreted what Trump said as a delay, boosting the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. A White House official said later Wednesday the deadline for Canada and Mexico tariffs remains March 4 and that Trump had not yet decided whether to give an extension.

Speaking later with Bloomberg Television, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said he thought the president was "quite clear" but declined to elaborate on the specific dates for the tariff rollout. 

Trying to Negotiate

Meantime, Canadian officials are undertaking a "full court press" in Washington to stave off the threatened 25% tax on most of the Canadian goods that flow into the US.

Anita Anand, Canada's minister of transport and internal trade, is among several policymakers meeting with US lawmakers and members of Trump's cabinet to push Canada's argument that tariffs would be counterproductive for the US.

"In every meeting I've had with congressional delegates and senators, whether Republican or Democrat, the representative or the elected official has been extremely collaborative and seeking to continue to have a robust trading relationship," Anand said in an interview. (Read the full story here.)

Jeep's Plea

Separately, the chairman of Jeep maker Stellantis urged Trump to refrain from putting tariffs on cars shipped from Canada or Mexico and instead focus on imported vehicles lacking any US parts content.

Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard is heading to Washington as well. According to an Economy Ministry statement, he'll meet with US counterparts including US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday afternoon. Ebrard will continue trade negotiations on Friday, when he's set to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

President Claudia Sheinbaum said members of Mexico's security cabinet, including the attorney general and defense department officials, are on their way to Washington and will meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday.

Laura Curtis in Los Angeles

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Don't Miss the Latest Trumponomics Podcast

Host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Joshua Green, national correspondent at Bloomberg Businessweek, and editor Laura Davison about the likelihood of a US shutdown, its consequences for the government and for Americans — and whether anything can stop Elon Musk's efforts to shrink the government.

Listen here and subscribe on AppleSpotify, or wherever you get your podcasts

Charted Territory

Egg support | The US is stepping up egg imports and boosting support to chicken farmers as part of the Trump administration's response to the worst-ever outbreak of avian flu that's sent egg prices to a record of over $8 a dozen. The nation will look to import between 70 million and 100 million eggs during the next month or two, the US Department of Agriculture said Wednesday as it announced a five-part plan with $1 billion in funding to address bird flu.

Today's Must Reads

  • New research from the New York Fed suggests the latest tariffs on US imports from China could hit the American economy more than official US trade data indicate, especially if the Trump administration ends favorable treatment of so-called "de minimis" imports.
  • Watch UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves say she has "every confidence" trade and investment between the US and UK can increase with the Trump administration.
  • The world's top commodity traders are rushing to ship copper to the US from as far afield as Asia as Trump's threat of import tariffs on the metal creates a huge opportunity for profit.
  • South Africa wants to reach a broad-ranging agreement with the US on diplomacy and trade amid strained ties between the two nations, President Cyril Ramaphosa said. 
  • Argentina, one of the world's top beef exporters, will now be able to send its cattle abroad for slaughter for the first time since the 1970s as President Javier Milei pushes to deregulate the economy.
  • Steven Madden CEO Edward Rosenfeld told analysts the company will raise some prices to counter the higher cost of China tariffs. "Where we think that we can get a little bit more for the goods, we will do that starting in the fall," he said.
  • In this Talking Transports podcast, Gernot Ruppelt, CEO of Ardmore Shipping, shares his insights into the state of the product tanker market.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Production of red chiles in the US southwest has plummeted 50% since 2018 as domestic growers are undercut by lower-priced imports in an unfair global trade economy, New Mexico Chile Association President Ben Etcheverry told senators during a hearing on America's farm economy.
  • Farmers are grappling with US government's "unwillingness to address agriculture's crippling shortage of reliable, legal labor," and finding workers at any price is almost impossible, Bret Erickson, Little Bear Produce SVP of business affairs said at the same hearing.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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