Friday, September 27, 2024

Japan’s ruling party embraces outsider

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.With its approval ratings sagging,

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.

With its approval ratings sagging, Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party has picked a perennial outsider as its new leader — and by extension the next prime minister. 

In a runoff vote today, party lawmakers unexpectedly opted for former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba over hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi, who took top spot in the first round.

That initially made Ishiba remarkable less for his actual policies than for what he's not bringing to the table. Takaichi would have been the first female prime minister in a country known for its failure to promote gender diversity. 

Unlike Ishiba, she was expected to clash with the Bank of Japan over monetary policy, push for more fiscal stimulus and potentially damage relations with Japan's neighbors by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, a memorial for the nation's war dead seen by many as a symbol of past militarism.

WATCH: Bloomberg's Shery Ahn reports on the fallout from the vote. Source: Bloomberg

Ishiba, 67, has long distanced himself from the government – and even left the party to join the opposition for a while. That history as a "traitor" helped doom his past four attempts to win the leadership of the LDP, which has been in power for all but a handful of years since 1955. 

This time it may have helped him, as the party hunts for a way to overhaul its image after a series of financial and other scandals.

Known for his "nerdy" interest in warships and fighter planes, Ishiba has indicated he wants a more equal relationship with his country's only formal treaty ally, the US, which could cause friction. Ishiba's also proposed an Asian equivalent of NATO, seen by many as unworkable. 

It remains to be seen whether his individualist streak can restore faith in the LDP ahead of a general election that must be held within a year or so.

Shigeru Ishiba. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Weapons supplies to Ukraine for next year are at risk, with some Western allies struggling to secure funding and others balking at increasing financing to help Kyiv as it heads into a third full winter since Russia's invasion, sources say. In contrast, Moscow's war machine is outpacing Ukraine's ability to acquire ammunition, missiles and other hardware to fend off attacks.

The brief optimism that the US and its allies shared as they unveiled a proposal for a three-week cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah crashed against opposition from a leader who has repeatedly dashed hopes of easing the turmoil in the Middle East: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His initial rejection of the plan bears strong echoes with the failure of diplomacy so far aimed at halting Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip — even if he seemed to soften that stance today.

The aftermath of overnight Israeli airstrikes in el-Karak in Lebanon's Bekaa valley yesterday.   Source: AFP/Getty Images 

Bangladesh, home to the world's fourth-largest Muslim population, is at a critical turning point after ousting its increasingly authoritarian leader. Western and Indian officials fear Islamist extremists are close to gaining a foothold in a volatile part of the world where groups such as Islamic State have made advances in recent years. Tensions in the Middle East provide a ripe environment for recruitment.

Angela Merkel, the conservative chancellor who ruled Germany for 16 years until 2021, built much of her legacy on policies normally associated with the left, like agreeing to bailouts for Greece and refusing to close her country's borders to hundreds of thousands of migrants. Now Friedrich Merz, her fellow Christian Democrat and longtime rival, is aiming to unseat Chancellor Olaf Scholz and undo Merkel's open-door migration policy with a far more right-wing agenda.

The worst drought in more than 100 years induced by El Niño is testing Zambia and will require its finance minister to devise an annual budget that can recharge an economy still emerging from a bruising debt restructuring. Situmbeko Musokotwane will face a huge challenge today to address the concerns of investors and voters when he presents the Southern African nation's 2025 spending plan.

Myanmar's generals are asking ethnic armed groups to take part in peace talks and elections in an attempt to stem losses from a simmering conflict that erupted after a military coup in 2021.

Mpox vaccinations will be administered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's capital, Kinshasa, in a bid to stop the virus from spreading rapidly in the city of 17 million and around the world through its air links.

Libyan factions agreed to appoint a new central bank governor, paving the way for a resolution to a dispute that's slashed the OPEC nation's oil output.

Washington Dispatch

Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to the US-Mexico border today as former President Donald Trump continues to assail her over the Joe Biden administration's immigration policies.

Harris plans to visit Douglas, Arizona, a small city in a state with enormous importance for both Democrats and Republicans in the November elections. According to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states, Harris has a slight lead among likely voters in Arizona, though other recent surveys give Trump a small advantage.

Harris plans to highlight her efforts to bring forth a bipartisan bill that would address border security and the influx of fentanyl, a campaign source says.

She will also hold Trump responsible for the failure of that legislation earlier this year, claiming that he demanded that it be killed to keep the border and immigration as an issue in his campaign. Trump called the measure "a great gift for Democrats and a Death Wish for The Republican Party."

One thing to watch today: The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation for August is expected to allay any concern about immediate upside risks.

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Chart of the Day

Poverty in Argentina soared past 50 percent, as President Javier Milei unleashed a shock therapy program to put a reeling economy back on its feet. It's the result of an aggressive cost-cutting exercise meant to tame inflation that the government says would have continued spiraling higher had it not acted.

And Finally

In an increasingly tumultuous world, the "golden visa" is a Plan B for the wealthy that allows them to effectively buy a second passport — or even full citizenship — with a large investment in countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy. Yet there has been intense blowback over corruption and real-estate prices, leading many countries to tighten rules. In this Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary, The Golden Migration May Be on Borrowed Time, we explore how the arrangement is being transformed and why its days may nevertheless be numbered.

WATCH: Political pressure to end or overhaul such programs has increased in recent years. Source: Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which country became the first in Southeast Asia to legalize same-sex marriages? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

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