The euro is vulnerable. Especially if inflation figures across Europe over the next few days increase expectations of interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank next month. The market is looking for a 60% chance of easing at the October meeting, higher than around 26% about a week ago. The change in pricing was due to a string of weak economic data. While inflation remains in focus, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel -- an ECB hawk -- expressed her concerns about growth. Her view on the region was more pessimistic than just a week ago. That raises the stakes for September inflation figures and its potential ramifications on the October decision. The ECB's 1-year inflation expectations measure decelerated significantly over the last year, but remains at 2.7% -- above the central bank's 2% target. While this level may be off their price objective, it is moving in the right direction. ECB officials are still concerned about services inflation, and for some it's more worrying than slowing growth. Softening there will be pivotal for next month's rate decision. Either way, weak activity and inflation data will weigh on the shared currency, both sparring faster rate cut expectations. Mary Nicola is a macro strategist for Bloomberg's Markets Live team, based in Singapore. |
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