Thursday, September 26, 2024

5 things to start your day: Europe

Good morning. Chinese stocks surge again as the government unveils more stimulus. Altice France is in talks to raise new debt. And Europe's

Good morning. Chinese stocks surge again as the government unveils more stimulus. Altice France is in talks to raise new debt. And Europe's commercial property may be about to rebound. Here's what people are talking about.

China's everything rally

Chinese stocks extended this week's gains Friday as the government cut the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve and lowered a key policy rate, part of a stimulus package that aims to shore up the slowing economy. For Bernard Arnault, who entered Thursday having lost more wealth this year than any other billionaire, the moves delivered a welcome surge in his net worth. For billionaire investor David Tepper the stimulus measures mean it's time to buy more of "everything" related to China. And Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets at Goldman Sachs Group, says Chinese shares should be a key part of investors' plans once the US election is over.

Euro-zone concerns rise

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel appears to have become more concerned about the euro-zone economy. In a presentation for an event Thursday in Stuttgart, she said the "euro-area economy is stagnating," that "surveys signal slowing economy" and that there are "increasing signs of softening" in the labor market, though it remains resilient. The slides offer a more pessimistic view on the region than a presentation Schnabel gave just a week ago. And in the US, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she "wholeheartedly" supported the central bank's move last week to cut interest rates by a half percentage point, citing a slowing labor market and easing inflation. The Fed governor didn't say how much more easing might be needed in the near term, but said she would look carefully at incoming economic data.

Read Mary's outlook for the euro below.

Altice debt talks

Altice France has held talks with funds including Apollo Global Management about raising new debt to repay looming maturities, a move that would potentially hurt existing creditors, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The embattled telecommunications company approached funds that aren't existing creditors to discuss this option, said the people. The new debt would be backed by assets in so-called unrestricted subsidiaries, meaning that they are out of the reach of creditors. Altice, owned by billionaire Patrick Drahi, is in the midst of negotiating a solution with creditors to slash its €24.4 billion ($27.2 billion) debt pile and reduce leverage to below four times earnings. In other French news, LVMH is investing in designer outdoor label Monclera move that will give the luxury company a seat on the Italian company's board.

EV tariffs loom

France's new foreign minister said his country supports a European Union plan to impose tariffs on electric vehicles produced in China given the subsidies Beijing has used to maintain dominance in the sector. Applying reciprocity measures will allow Europe to remain "more independent, stronger economically and strategically more autonomous," he said.
While auto executives are pumping the brakes on battery-powered cars in many parts of the world, auto companies are still smashing the accelerator on EVs in the UK. There are now 95 electric models available for British drivers, nearly twice as many as in the US market and one-third more than the UK had 12 months ago. The choices for EV-curious shoppers have surged since Bloomberg Green started tracking the market last year: Tally up all the variations — from larger batteries to all-wheel drive options — and drivers have 305 distinct options.

Property rebound?

A dormant construction site visible from the back door of Berlin's grand Hotel Adlon is emblematic of the boom turned bust in Europe's real estate markets, but investors that gathered recently at the five-star establishment have started to look past symbols like the hole in the ground across the street and toward a nascent recovery. At the EPRA conference in Berlin last week, publicly traded landlords and their financiers enthused over the prospects for the commercial property sector. It was a noticeable change after two years of gloom, when a collapse in real estate stocks foretold an impending plunge in valuations. Now, public markets are thawing, even though asset values haven't yet followed suit. That's helped underpin the biggest cash rush since at least 2021 and put listed landlords are at the forefront of the prospective turnaround, just as they were at the leading edge of the collapse. 

Coming up

Today we expect CPIs for France and Spain, euro-zone consumer confidence and ECB CPI expectations. US personal spending and PCE price index are also due. Central bank speakers include the ECB's Rehn, Lane, Cipollone and Nagel and the Fed's Bowman.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Mary is interested in this morning:

The euro is vulnerable. Especially if inflation figures across Europe over the next few days increase expectations of interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank next month.

The market is looking for a 60% chance of easing at the October meeting, higher than around 26% about a week ago. The change in pricing was due to a string of weak economic data. While inflation remains in focus, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel -- an ECB hawk -- expressed her concerns about growth. Her view on the region was more pessimistic than just a week ago. That raises the stakes for September inflation figures and its potential ramifications on the October decision.

The ECB's 1-year inflation expectations measure decelerated significantly over the last year, but remains at 2.7% -- above the central bank's 2% target. While this level may be off their price objective, it is moving in the right direction. ECB officials are still concerned about services inflation, and for some it's more worrying than slowing growth. Softening there will be pivotal for next month's rate decision. Either way, weak activity and inflation data will weigh on the shared currency, both sparring faster rate cut expectations.

Mary Nicola is a macro strategist for Bloomberg's Markets Live team, based in Singapore.

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