Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Supply Lines: Europe’s ice-cold factories

Anyone betting that Europe's industrial engine was poised for a second-half rebound received a rude awakening Wednesday."The latest developm

Anyone betting that Europe's industrial engine was poised for a second-half rebound received a rude awakening Wednesday.

"The latest developments have proved to be something of a cold shower for those expectations," ING economist Carsten Brzeski wrote in a research note. "Not the relieving kind on a hot summer's day, but rather an ice cold shower in the winter when the central heating is broken."

Brzeski was referring to monthly purchasing managers' reports that showed, among other down arrows, a deeper contraction in Germany's factory sector, which has been in retrenchment mode for two years.

Read More: Euro-Zone Activity Grounds to Halt on Surprise German Slump

France's manufacturing PMI surprised on the downside, too, failing to reach expansion territory for an 18th straight month.

According to David Powell of Bloomberg Economics, Germany is worse off than France, with "declines in both manufacturing and services, suggesting the country is having to cope with a depressed industrial sector and the anticipated recovery in services from a boost in real incomes appears to be delayed."

Read More: The US Economy Is Slowing, Which Is Just Fine With the Fed

France's economy "may be receiving a boost from the Olympics and is moving beyond the hiccup caused by the French parliamentary elections and the volatility in the government bond market," Powell wrote in a research note on the Bloomberg Terminal.

In the euro area more broadly, the manufacturing PMI reading fell to the lowest level of the year.

In a worrying sign for inflation-fighting central bankers, input prices increased at a faster pace across the economy, according to the PMI data, and output prices fell only fractionally.

Related Reading:

Brendan Murray in London

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Charted Territory

Crude Cut | Slovakia said it could be forced to cut fuel exports to neighboring countries — including Ukraine — if the war-ravaged nation maintains sanctions that have cut the flow of piped crude from Russia. Oil supplies to Slovakia and Hungary from Moscow-based producer Lukoil were suspended last week following a decision by the Ukrainian government to impose stricter sanctions on the company. 

Today's Must Reads

  • Elon Musk said Tesla won't invest further in its planned Mexico factory until after the US election, citing too much political risk from Republican nominee Donald Trump's pledges to impose more tariffs on Mexico-made goods. Meanwhile, the two biggest US steelmakers urged further trade restrictions against Mexico.
  • Malaysia's Trade Ministry is reviewing its anti-dumping legislation and plans to present it to parliament next year, joining Indonesia in heeding concerns about cheap Chinese products hurting local businesses.
  • Poland has threatened to choke off a key Chinese rail export route to the European Union in a diplomatic gambit to slow escalating the migration crisis on its eastern border.
  • India will remove import taxes on 25 critical minerals and ramp up efforts to develop small-scale nuclear reactors to speed its adoption of clean energy, said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
  • Europe's wind industry warned Germany that a deal for 16 Chinese offshore wind turbines risks fostering unfair competition for local suppliers and poses a threat to the region's energy security. Separately, the biggest producer of EV batterie in Europe may branch out to build energy storage facilities for households harnessing renewable energy.
  • Canada's largest rail company lowered its 2024 earnings forecast as some customers diverted their shipments because of the threat of a strike.

On the Airwaves

Coming Up

Bloomberg Supply Chain Intelligence Webinar Series: Unpredictability in global politics, industrial policies, financial markets and climate patterns have heightened the need to understand the intricacies of supply chains – and pinpoint where risk lies. The goal of this series is to shine a spotlight on major trends and issues that are shaping global supply chains and how these trends are impacting corporations and investors in those corporations. Register here

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Russia will reimpose a gasoline-export ban for August as planned, and is prepared to extend it to September and October if needed, Interfax reported.
  • A free trade agreement among 29 east and southern Africa nations will take effect July 25th and will prioritize market integration, infrastructure development and industrial development, according to the East African Community.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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